In a hypothetical 2024 Democratic Primary, President Biden holds a 42% plurality of support, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris with 17%, and Bernie Sanders at 12%. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump leads with 55% support in a hypothetical 2024 Republican Primary, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with a quarter of Republican support (25%). No other candidate reaches double-digit support for the Republican or Democratic nomination.
It’s not an overwhelming GOP majority for Trump. But it’s a majority. Right now all the possible challengers are playing to a very small audience of big donors. But a few more polls like this and I’d expect some of these presidential hopefuls to start crawling back to Mar-a-lago. And those donors will will certainly open their wallets to Trump eventually.
Here’s the breakdown:
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “There is a stark education divide among Republican primary voters. A 71% majority of voters with a high school degree or less support Trump in 2024 whereas 14% support DeSantis. A 53% majority of those with a college degree, some college, or associate’s degree support Trump while 28% support DeSantis. By contrast, Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split: 32% support Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.”
Kimball added: “There is also an age divide in the Republican primary: younger voters under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%, voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%, while Republicans over 65 are more split: 39% support Trump and 32% DeSantis.”
It’s interesting that people over 65 are more split than younger voters. But it’s the education divide that makes Trump so powerful. A majority of white, non-college educated voters are GOP.
In a potential 2024 Presidential Election between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a four-point lead over Trump, 45% to 41%. Nine percent would support someone else and 6% are undecided. If Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were the 2024 nominee, he trails Biden by four, 39% to 43%; 11% would support someone else and 8% are undecided. In a match-up between President Biden and Representative Liz Cheney, Biden leads 37% to 19%, while 33% would vote for someone else, and 11% are undecided.
Kimball noted, “In a hypothetical match-up between Cheney and Biden, a 55% majority of Republican voters would vote for someone else on the 2024 ballot, along with a 36% plurality of independents.”
Cheney is not going to get the GOP nomination. Lol. And if she ran as an Independent she’d probably take quite a few votes from Biden (because people are stupid) and that would not be good. Let’s hope she doesn’t get it into head to do that.
The plurality of voters (46%) find the economy to be the most important issue facing the United States, followed by “threats to democracy” (12%), immigration (9%), abortion access (7%), healthcare (6%), and crime (6%).
A majority of voters (52%) think that Congress should continue to investigate the events of January 6th, while 39% think they should not.
That 39% are real patriots…
Quinnipiac:
One week after former President Donald Trump announced he was seeking to return to the White House with a 2024 presidential bid, Americans 57 – 34 percent think Trump running for president in 2024 is a bad thing, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of adults released today.
Democrats (88 – 8 percent) and independents (58 – 32 percent) think it’s a bad thing, while Republicans (62 – 27 percent) think it’s a good thing.
A majority of Americans (55 percent) think Donald Trump has had a mainly negative impact on the Republican Party, while 37 percent think he has had a mainly positive impact. Republicans 70 – 24 percent think Trump has had a mainly positive impact on their party.
Roughly one-third of Americans (35 percent) consider themselves supporters of Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, while 60 percent do not consider themselves supporters. Nearly 8 in 10 Republicans (79 percent) consider themselves supporters of the MAGA movement, while 16 percent do not.
Roughly half of Americans (49 percent) think it’s either very likely (18 percent) or somewhat likely (31 percent) that Donald Trump will win another presidential election, while 48 percent think it’s either not so likely (23 percent) or not likely at all (25 percent).
The poll also says they want Ron DeSantis to run so whatever.