Month: November 2022

The GOP strategy in full effect

"There's gonna be a come to Jesus" — Kari Lake is holding a press gaggle where she is already nodding toward conspiracies about election results in Arizona

"They may be trying to slow a red tsunami, but it's coming" — Lake baselessly insinuates that issues with voting machines in Arizona are a conspiracy

classy stuff from Kari Lake

.@VaughnHillyard to Kari Lake: "To be clear, the lines are not acceptable … at the same time, there is no evidence to suggest this is not gonna be an accurate election."

Kari Lake to reporters: "I'm going to be your worst frickin' nightmare for 8 years, and we will reform the media as well. We're gonna make you guys into journalists again."

Originally tweeted by Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) on November 8, 2022.

None of this should be a surprise:

Kari Lake refuses to commit to accepting the result of the Arizona gubernatorial election pic.twitter.com/2BUyJtFKVC

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 16, 2022

You aren’t paying attention

The Shrill One (whose shrillness has been proven prophetic) had this to say about the Rise of MAGA

this week and it’s sobering. This picks it up halfway through after he challenges the notion that focusing on the economy would have had the Democrats on the cusp of a huge win. He calls that “fundamentally dishonest”:

Finally, even voters who are more worried about paychecks and living costs than about democracy should nonetheless be very concerned about the G.O.P.’s rejection of democratic norms.

For one thing, Republicans have been open about their plan to use the threat of economic chaos to extract concessions they couldn’t win through the normal legislative process.

Also, while I understand the instinct of voters to choose a different driver if they don’t like where the economy is going, they should understand that this time, voting Republican doesn’t just mean giving someone else a chance at the wheel; it may be a big step toward handing the G.O.P. permanent control, with no chance for voters to revisit that decision if they don’t like the results.

Which brings me to the question of what a one-party America would look like.

As I said, it’s now almost conventional wisdom that Republicans are trying to turn us into Hungary. Indeed, Hungary provides a case study in how democracies can die in the 21st century.

But what strikes me, reading about Orban’s rule, is that while his regime is deeply repressive, the repression is relatively subtle. It is, as one perceptive article put it, “soft fascism,” which makes dissidents powerless via its control of the economy and the news media without beating them up or putting them in jail.

Do you think a MAGA regime, with or without Donald Trump, would be equally subtle? Listen to the speeches at any Trump rally. They’re full of vindictiveness, of promises to imprison and punish anyone — including technocrats like Anthony Fauci — the movement dislikes.

And much of the American right is sympathetic to, or at least unwilling to condemn, violence against its opponents. The Republican reaction to the attack on Paul Pelosi by a MAGA-spouting intruder was telling: Many in the party didn’t even pretend to be horrified. Instead, they peddled ugly conspiracy theories. And the rest of the party didn’t ostracize or penalize the purveyors of vile falsehoods.

In short, if MAGA wins, we’ll probably find ourselves wishing its rule was as tolerant, relatively benign and relatively nonviolent as Orban’s.

Now, this catastrophe doesn’t have to happen. Even if Republicans win big in the midterms, it won’t be the end for democracy, although it will be a big blow. And nothing in politics, not even a full descent into authoritarianism, is permanent.

On the other hand, even if we get a reprieve this week, the fact remains that democracy is in deep danger from the authoritarian right. America as we know it is not yet lost, but it’s on the edge.

The Hungarian model is out there beckoning to these white nationalist authoritarians. It’s clearly where they are headed, don’t let the orange clown distract from it.

All is not lost if the Democrats lose the congress. Biden is still a firewall in the White House although they are planning some very dangerous shenanigans to tank the economy before 2024. But this is happening. And people had better wake up to the fact that “messaging” about economic anxiety isn’t going to solve it.

As I write this, I’m still hoping against hope that they are going to be pushed back this cycle. It wouldn’t solve the problem but it would keep the Resistance pressure on them. At this point it’s very important.

But who cares about us anyway?

remember that you are an out of touch snooty cosmopolitan elitist if you dare to think that the people in the red area deserve to have their votes count the same as everyone else, but calling everyone in the red area a degenerate subhuman is Just Telling It Like It Is. https://t.co/n6QfEh6HUh

— William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver) November 7, 2022

I am one of those degenerate sub-humans and I am here to say that I don’t think cows and rocks should have more representation in congress than I do. The US Senate (and the electoral college) are undemocratic institutions and should be abolished. Gerrymandering should be done by independent commissions.

That is the dreamworld I live in out here in LaLa Land with all these other people.

Crank up some tunes

Michael Moore thoughtfully put together an election day mix-tape just in case you’d like to turn off the TV (before your throw a shoe at it) and have decided to do some cleaning or gardening or (god forbid) some work!

00:00:00 Democracy — Leonard Cohen

00:07:04 Break My Soul — Beyoncé

00:11:35 People Have The Power — Patti Smith

00:16:35 The Times They Are A-Changin’ — Michael Moore

00:20:16 New Americana — Halsey

00:24:11 We Shall Overcome — Bruce Springsteen

00:28:57 Wasteland of the Free — Iris DeMent

00:34:07 Before The Deluge — Jackson Browne

00:40:01 America — Simon & Garfunkel

00:43:28 All You Fascists — Billy Bragg and Wilco

00:46:08 The Sound Of Silence — Disturbed

00:50:16 We Belong — Pat Benatar

00:53:53 Where Is The Love? — The Black Eyed Peas

00:58:01 American Tune — Paul Simon

01:01:41 Beyond The Sea — Bobby Darin

01:04:32 American Saturday Night — Brad Paisley

01:09:01 Better Days — The Goo Goo Dolls

01:12:27 Star Spangled Banner — Jimi Hendrix

01:16:12 American Idiot — Green Day

01:19:06 American Life — Madonna

01:22:56 Better World A-Comin’ — Woody Guthrie

01:26:00 Put On A Happy Face — Dick Van Dyke & Janet Leigh

01:29:33 Not Ready To Make Nice — The Chicks

01:33:23 Dog Days Are Over — Florence + The Machine

01:37:01 I’ve Seen All Good People — Yes

01:43:35 Under Pressure — Queen & David Bowie

01:47:29 You’re Not Alone — Allison Russell (feat. Brandi Carlile)

01:52:33 The Ghost of Tom Joad — Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello

02:01:11 Talkin’ Bout a Revolution — Tracy Chapman

02:03:44 Try — P!nk

02:07:48 President — Wyclef Jean

02:11:23 All Along The Watchtower — The Jimi Hendrix Experience

02:15:21 Oh Very Young — Cat Stevens

02:17:51 The Greatest — Sia

02:21:10 We Got the Beat — The Go Go’s

02:23:40 Killing In the Name — Rage Against The Machine

02:28:53 F**k You — Lily Allen

02:32:25 We Can Be Together — Jefferson Airplane

02:38:10 About Damn Time — Lizzo

02:41:21 Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life — Eric Idle & Monty Python

A little update on what they’re talking about today from NBC’s Ben Collins:

So that’s nice. It looks as though they have their paranoia turned all the way up to 11:

I just want to stress this again: On extremist pro-Trump forums, they are not talking about voting.

Anybody who IS voting on TheDonald is doing it in person but assuming it might not count.

Pro-Trump forums are OBSESSED with the idea that ballot “mules” are making up votes, and some even think “pro-union” nursing home workers are voting for their grandparents.

Here’s the oracle of Murdoch last night:

It's the night before midterm elections and Tucker Carlson is telling his viewers that Democrats will steal the election and threaten a civil war. pic.twitter.com/uuysGl5Rj8

— Kat Abu (@abughazalehkat) November 8, 2022

That man is the most influential “thinker” on the right. *Sigh*

But remember, you aren’t paranoid if they’re really out to get you:

Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Monday he had interfered in U.S. elections and would continue doing so in future, the first such admission from a figure implicated by Washington in efforts to influence American politics.

In comments posted by the press service of his Concord catering firm on Russia’s Facebook equivalent VKontakte, Prigozhin said: “We have interfered (in U.S. elections), we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do.”

The remark by the close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin was posted on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections in response to a request for comment from a Russian news site.

“During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once,” Prigozhin said. He did not elaborate on the cryptic comment.

And this:

During Monday’s broadcast of the state TV show 60 Minutes, Sergei Luzyanin, professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Russian Foreign Ministry, complained of the bipartisan “Russophobic consensus” in the U.S. Congress and Senate. Luzyanin said, “A potential victory of the Republicans in the Congress and perhaps in the Senate, will mark the beginning of a political Halloween.” He predicted that in the next two years, Republicans will pursue a multitude of legal disagreements, court cases and impeachments, all of which will lead to exacerbating the already existing societal divisions and conflicts among the elites.

Luzyanin predicted: “After the midterm elections, we’ll see a glass jar full of poisonous American spiders, tearing each other up. Go ahead and eat one another! It will be a frightening political process… It may also lead to tactical or strategic changes in their foreign policy… Get lots of popcorn and let’s watch.”

They seem nice too.

Russians don’t need to tip elections for Republicans with disinformation. The Republicans are pros. But they can help …

Hell if I know…

Amy Walter at The Cook Report has three possible scenarios:

1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election

We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House. Not only do the closest races tip to Republicans, but the GOP picks up seats in unexpected places. 

Two things need to happen for this scenario to play out: 1) Democratic voters are less motivated to vote while Republicans turnout at much higher levels and 2) independent voters break decisively toward Republicans by 12-15 points. 

In this scenario, Republicans would win at least 30 House seats and 3-4 Senate seats. 

How Do We Know If This Will Happen: 

Watch the New Hampshire Senate race. Polls close in the Granite State at 7 pm. Republicans have argued for months that Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is vulnerable. However, they failed to put up a top tier candidate, allowing her to control this contest’s narrative for months. If she loses, we should expect to see Republicans picking up at least two, if not three Senate seats. 

In the House, watch VA-10, where First Lady Jill Biden is rallying voters on election eve. This northern Virginia seat voted for Biden by 18 points. If Republican Hung Cao defeats Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D), it’s a sure sign that the blue firewall has been breached. 

2. A “Wavey” Election

The closest historical example would be the 2018 midterms. In this scenario, turnout is roughly even to slightly better for Republicans. Independent voters, however, break decisively for Republicans (say by 10-12 points). The closest races break for Republicans, but there are fewer ‘surprise’ pick-ups. 

This scenario would produce a GOP gain in the House in the 20s and a likely one-seat gain in the Senate. 

How Do We Know If This Will Happen:

Watch the Pennsylvania Senate and IN-01 races. A Dr. Oz win in Pennsylvania would not just give GOPers a morale boost but would serve as a serious roadblock for continued Democratic control of the Senate. 

To get into the 20+ seat range, Republicans need to pick off districts that voted for Biden by 6 points or more in 2020. Heavily blue-collar IN-01 voted for Biden by 8 points. 

3. A Red Ripple 

We don’t have an analog in recent years for this type of midterm election. In this scenario, Democratic and Republican turnout is basically equal — with both sides able to juice their base. Instead of breaking decisively for Republicans, independent voters give Republicans a small advantage. Republicans pick up seats in pink/red districts and states, but fail to make gains into districts or states that Biden won handily in 2020. 

In this scenario, Democrats lose the House by a very small margin (maybe 8-12 seats) and Democrats keep the Senate. 

How Do We Know If This Will Happen:

Watch the Pennsylvania Senate and OH-13 races. If Democrats win the Pennsylvania Senate, this does not guarantee they will hold the Senate. But, it means they can afford to lose one of their own incumbents and still hold onto a 50-50 senate. 

If Republicans are going to have a good night, they have to be able to win CDs like the open Akron-based 13th CD in Ohio. If Republicans aren’t winning in districts that Biden narrowly carried (he won here by 3 points in 2020), it’s hard to see how they win in much bluer territory. 

I do know one thing. If you were to spend your day watching cable news you would think it’s all over and the red Tsunami is inevitable. Luckily most people who watch cable news are probably the types who vote early or are dedicated voters regardless so this depressing coverage won’t affect them. But if you happen to tune in and think that it’s all over because pof the way they are covering the election on election day, turn it off. They can’t tell the future but they sure can impact it.

It’s not going to be smooth

Here’s a little primer on what to expect:

Wondering when we will know election results? Check out my latest interactive with @baseballot!

We used primary data to see how fast votes where counted in the primary + tracked down info from state officials on what to expect.

Click on any state for more information on what will happen when the polls close. Of course, we also added “Races to Watch” buttons that will direct you to each race’s forecast.

Originally tweeted by Elena Mejía (@elena___mejia) on November 7, 2022.

And then there’s this crazy nonsense…

The morning before polls opened in Cochise County, Arizona, a judge still had not ruled on how local votes would be counted.

On one side of the case were state officials and voters who opposed an effort to audit Tuesday’s election by hand. Arguing in favor of an audit were some of Cochise County’s Republican officials, backed by lawyers previously involved in a chaotic 2021 election audit in Arizona’s Maricopa County.

Cochise, a rural county on the southern border, is one of several to preemptively call for an audit of its 2022 midterm vote. Although counties routinely review their elections, this new wave of audit enthusiasts is cozy with conspiracy theorists, and promotes methods like hand-counting ballots, which elections security experts describe as one of the most surefire ways to accidentally introduce errors into a vote count.

This is very stupid unless you plan to have partisan vote counters. They wouldn’t do that would they??

[…]

Two Republicans on Cochise’s three-person board of supervisors voted in favor of the audit last month, only to be hit with a lawsuit from a local voter and an alliance of Arizona retirees, who called the hand recount “unlawful, chaotic, time consuming and unnecessary.” Arizona’s secretary of state also weighed in with a brief, warning that a recount could cause a delay in Arizona’s election, where multiple election-denialist candidates have already raised the specter of fraud in the midterms. Arizona officials have previously raised concerns about conspiracy theorists using election delays as fodder for claims of election fraud.

But Cochise County officials say they’re within their rights to audit the vote by hand. The group struck back in court, represented by Bryan Blehm, an attorney who previously worked for Cyber Ninjas, the group behind a freewheeling “audit” in Maricopa County. In a filing last week, Blehm argued that opposition to the hand count was actually part of a plot to benefit Democratic Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs.

I know you are but what am I?

[…]

Some of the loudest calls for preemptive audits come from Republican strongholds in swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Officials in Pennsylvania’s Lycoming and York counties have already committed to hand recounts, although York County officials said it would only examine ballots from three of its 161 precincts.

York County’s decision to hand-audit its election came after a meeting between York County President Commissioner Julie Wheeler and Audit the Vote PA, the York Dispatch reported. ATVPA, an election-denial group, previously made headlines for an error-riddled “canvass report” of Pennsylvania voters. While conducting that survey, ATVPA volunteers knocked on doors and asked questions about residents’ votes, leading to York County locals accusing the group of intimidation and voter suppression efforts. ATVPA has also attempted to remove electronic voting machines in York County.

Wheeler, who did not return a request for comment on Monday, told CBS21 that the hand recount “is not tied to any election issues in the past. This is not an indication that we believe that prior election results that we certified are inaccurate.”

Other counties have entertained calls for hand counts, only to be stopped in the courts or by local officials.

A conspiracy-driven coalition campaigned to audit Pinal County, Arizona’s election, but was voted down by county officials this month. And in Nye County, Nevada, a county clerk who falsely believes Donald Trump won the 2020 election announced that he would conduct a hand-counted audit of his county’s vote. That effort was already underway in late October, when Nevada’s secretary of state halted the effort.

In a statement, Nye County announced that it would resume the hand count “as soon as our plan is in compliance with the Court’s order and approved by the Secretary of State.”

Yeah, and:

Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states

The lawsuits coincide with a systemic effort by GOP leaders to persuade voters to cast ballots in person, not absentee

Buckle up…

Is this what it always feels like?

There was no time Monday to catch up with the latest episode of Rachel Maddow’s ULTRA. The obvious parallels between the 1940s fifth column in the U.S. and the pro-fascist sentiments roiling the land today are truly disturbing. But Maddow’s recovered history is also a source of hope. The U.S. and its WWII allies defeated fascism.

For 70 years, anyway.

Presidential historian Michael Beschloss, too, is aware of the parallels.

Patriotic American World War II poster: pic.twitter.com/FZi3pdMdGU

— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) November 7, 2022

Beschloss also reminds Twitter what Americans opposed to the Axis stood for: Roosevelt’s Four Freedoms.

FDR warned Congress, January 1941, that "the democratic way of life is…being directly assailed in every part of the world…by arms or by secret spreading of poisonous propaganda."
He warned of "those who would give up essential liberty." pic.twitter.com/WImJmqx39Y

— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) November 7, 2022

Your freedoms are on the ballot today. Go defend yours.

I’m out canvassing for votes. We’ll see you on the other side.

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Please go vote and take family and friends.

Vote for a tomorrow as beautiful as these two

I love these guys.

https://twitter.com/PatinkinMandy/status/1589639417475792898?s=20&t=hGcODFIvll3krHJMroI7zA

The young are not going to let their country slip away.

NEW: footage from the University of Michigan on-campus voting center shows a HUGE line of young people waiting to vote. Young people in Michigan — and across the country — are fired up and ready to turnout. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. pic.twitter.com/FHwASIfi9z

— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) November 7, 2022

Go, and do thou likewise.

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Please go vote and take family and friends.

Two years ago today pic.twitter.com/B51FryqX2A

— Andrew Feinberg (@AndrewFeinberg) November 7, 2022