The Republicans get ready for a crowded primary
They have to know that this is suicidal for their chances, but they’re doing it anyway:
It’s beginning to look a lot like 2016.
Former President Donald Trump is the only Republican so far who has announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they’re toying with the same idea.
They’re doing all the things they’re supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden’s policies — and even Trump’s latest controversies.
The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider.
“You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run,” he said.
December would be a “frustrating month” for political watchers because “no one is going to move that much,” said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called “trial balloons” — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react.
Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, “it’s a real possibility” that the GOP lineup will be large like it was in 2016.
The stakes for losing the nomination aren’t all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could end up getting chosen as running mate or get a seat on the new president’s Cabinet.
And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one’s profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also wind up selling a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show.
“It’s a long, difficult process,” Heye said, “and you’re more likely to lose than not.”
Trump’s legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win.
Insider identified 17 people who could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the “why I’m running for president” question and find their lane in the party — which will inevitably include defining, or redefining, their relationship with Trump.
“I don’t think you can discount any of them at this point,” Heye said. “It’s too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner.”
There are two main reasons why this is so treacherous for the GOP. First of all, the primaries are mostly winner take all which means that, like 2016, Trump could win the nomination without getting a majority of the primary votes. So it’s a very high bar for any competitor in a crowded field. But more importantly, they will have to contend with Trump not just giving them stupid nicknames but threatening to take his base and go home if he doesn’t win. He will not unify the party behind any winner that isn’t him.
It’s always possible that Trump might be so embroiled in legal troubles that he can’t run. (I’d bet that he’ll run even if he’s in jail, but there’s always a chance he might realize that’s a bad idea.) And nobody knows what his cult will do. A lot of them really hate the Republican establishment and have transferred their loyalty to him alone. And he’s brought in new people who think politics is just Trump.
But let a thousand flowers bloom. It will be entertaining anyway — sort of. The idea of Trump as president again is so chilling it will be very hard to enjoy the circus.