McConnell emerges from the crypt to take a swipe at Trump. For the moment:
Yeah, whatever. He’ll still back him if he’s the nominee so…
Speaking of Mitch, JV Last at the Bulwark takes a look at the motivations of the anti-anti-Trump Republicans — you know, the ones who know very well that Trump is a toxic menace but want to ride the upside.
Over on The Bulwark subreddit, a reader asks an interesting question about anti-anti-Trump Republicans:
Their theory of the case, and I’m not always sure they even know this, is that they are going to use their own extreme flank . . . to its maximum advantage. . . . DJT et al have created a space for us to “grow” our voter base to the right and we are going to take it! . . .
They were always waiting for DJT to be caught by the cops. To be prosecuted. To be dealt with by the inherent honesty of the system. The inherent decency of America finally caught up with Mr. Trump as they aways knew it would. And now that that is coming true they are just going to ride the wave. . . .
What do you think?
Here is what I think: The anti-anti-Trump position was always likely to win. If the Republic survived the Trump years, then the anti-anti-Trumpers were going to have been “correct.” Any outcome short of the end of democracy and they would emerge saying, “See? Told you so.”
It’s grotesque, sure. Like a guy setting fire to a house, then throwing rocks at the firefighters when they show up, and then—so long as the house doesn’t burn all the way to the ground—saying, “See? It all worked out!”
But this dynamic was obvious from the start. There was never going to be a day when Matt Schlapp or Rich Lowry woke up and said, “My God—we were wrong about everything. Thank goodness other people stepped into the breach to stop that dangerous movement.”
The authoritarian attempt was always going to end in one of two ways. Either democracy would fail, or it would survive—and the people who blew up their professional lives to try to help save it would be excommunicated and regarded as traitors and/or suckers.
The anti-anti-Trump position was most clearly articulated by Mitch McConnell on January 11, 2021. Discussing the second impeachment of Trump, McConnell remarked, “The Democrats are going to take care of the son of a bitch for us.”
McConnell knew that Trump was dangerous. But he also knew that confronting Trump would cost him political power. So he counted on Democrats to protect American democracy for him—even to the point of publicly working against them while privately hoping they would succeed. McConnell believed that he didn’t need to pay the price because someone else would pay it for him.
And he was right.
There’s a lesson in this, but it’s not a very nice one
I’m withholding judgment about whether or not Trump is really on the run. He hasn’t cleared the field and there seems to be quite a line-up of hopefuls at the moment. The latest Great Whitebread Hope,Ron DeSantis, seems to be popular but we’ve seen dreamboats in his position crash and burn before.
They will all fall in line. Ed Kilgore agrees but notes that the possibility of Trump being a loser to Biden could change the calculation for the GOP base. He writes:
[T]here is one measurable optic that could affect Republican voter preferences from sea to shining sea if they show a glaring disparity: perceived 2024 electability. Just as Democrats who might have preferred a younger or more progressive nominee in 2020 settled on Biden as the most electable option against the much-hated Trump, Republicans could dump Trump in 2024 if he’s perceived as a sure loser while alternative candidates aren’t. So it’s probably a good idea to keep an eye on general-election polling along with primary polling.
As I posted earlier there is a poll out today that shows DeSantis beating Biden while Trump loses to him so maybe Kilgore is right. But I’ll believe it when I see it. Trump is still very popular among Republicans and once the battle is joined he’s going to hit Desantis hard. It will be a brutal fight which will re-establish faith in Trump among a good many of his die-hard followers. They love it when he destroys people, even Republicans they like.
Trump will also tell his followers that the polls are lying and many of them will believe him. He is their orange Jesus after all, persecuted and tortured by his enemies. Once Trump positions DeSantis as his enemy, that grievance will be transferred to him. The only question is how many people does Trump represent? It was tens of millions before. Will there be enough to secure him the nomination this time?
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