Axios posts a chart this morning labeled: Share of independent voters who supported Democrat or Republican candidates.
Republicans consistently underperform Democrats with independent voters “who say they don’t lean toward either party,” Axios reports, referencing an AR/VoteCast survey.
Associated Press reported Monday:
Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018 when they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among independents helps explain why Republicans flipped just nine seats, securing a threadbare majority that has already raised questions about the party’s ability to govern.
Ability to govern? Republicans have shown no desire to govern. That’s plain from this quote from a voter raised in a rural Republican family:
“We were just being told, ‘Pelosi bad, Biden bad, therefore Craig bad,’ instead of hearing ‘This is my plan to represent this district,’” said [Steve] Stauff, a 42-year-old sales representative. “If you don’t bring me solutions to whatever problems you think we have, how can I take you seriously?”
Despite relentless Republican messages blaming inflation on President Joe Biden, independent voters unhappy about the economy nonetheless attributed inflation to many factors out of Biden’s control. “But that nuance was often missing from the GOP’s political message,” reports AP.
Axios adds:
The data show Republicans have been stuck in the high 30s among independents in each of the past three elections.
- These voters made up 12% of the electorate in 2018, 5% in 2020 and 8% in 2022.
- 20% of independents didn’t vote for either party in 2022 (the missing votes in the chart above).
Yes, well. The chart at the top of the post represents “independents who say they don’t lean toward either party.” What they say and how they actually vote may be very different things. So, it’s not clear how accurate (or useful) the chart is.
Once early voting starts here, candidates start asking themselves (and me) how the unaffiliated vote (what independents are called in North Carolina) will break for Democrats. UNAs now constitute the largest bloc of voters in this state. So when people ask how Democrats are voting, that’s not my greatest concern. UNAs hold the veto pen in the voting booth. Knowng how they split statewide is important to statewide candidates, but knowing how they split where is important both to statewide candidates and to those running in districts.
It is necromancy to know in any precinct how UNAs will vote in the coming election. But owing to North Carolina’s wide-open access to freely downloadable election data, it is possible to estimate how independent voters cast ballots in the last one. That is a window into where the fishing is good (and not) for Democrats looking to woo those independents in the fall. In the 30+ states where voters register by party, divining this may also be possible but a lot more trouble and not free.
In 2020 and 2022, I estimate only 42% of UNAs in NC voted for the Democrat at the top of the ticket. In my county it was 56%. In my precinct it was 80%. In counties below 100k in population, the UNAs go red pretty fast. In some precincts in those especially, not even all the registered Democrats vote for the Democrat. That sort of thing might be useful to know in 2024.
Now if I can just get our candidates’ attention.
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