Kevin McCarthy capitulated to the crazies yesterday and agreed to reinstate the “vacate the chair” rule with a compromise that would allow five Representatives to challenge the Speaker and call for a vote (a sort of “no confidence” move.) This rule was in place for decades allowing only on Rep to call for the vote but was withdrawn after wingnuts decided to abuse it. Now they want it back and McCarthy, for obvious reasons, has not been receptive. But finally he came up with this compromise which … didn’t help. There are still a whole bunch of nos (the last I saw was it was 14) against his for speaker. And they all have different demands. Meanwhile, the so-called “moderates” (which simply means they’re only 50% batshit crazy) are starting to get restive as well. It’s a mess.
Harry Enten at CNN has an analysis of poor Kev’s current troubles. The problem is that nobody likes him:
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is hoping all’s well that ends well when it comes to becoming speaker of the chamber. The current minority leader and former majority leader may have thought he’d have the speakership locked up by now, but, ahead of the new Congress that begins on Tuesday, he doesn’t.
McCarthy’s problems in securing the top spot in the House are more easily understood when you realize the hand he’s been dealt. He has a historically small majority for a potential first-time speaker, and McCarthy, himself, is historically unpopular compared with other House members who have tried to become speaker.
McCarthy’s Republican Party secured only 222 seats in the 2022 midterms, leaving him little room for error to get to 218 votes – the number needed to achieve the speakership assuming all members vote. McCarthy can only afford to lose the support of four Republicans, and the list of GOP lawmakers who’ve said they will vote against him is longer than that.
[…]
A CNN/SSRS poll last month found that his net favorable (i.e. favorable minus unfavorable) rating was +30 points among Republicans. That’s certainly not bad. (Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell has notoriously low ratings among Republicans.) But a net favorability rating of +30 points isn’t really good either.
Another way to frame it: McCarthy is liked by Republicans, but far from beloved. There’s no groundswell of support from the grassroots demanding he become speaker.
McCarthy has the second-lowest net favorability rating among his own party members of all first-time potential speakers in the last 28 years. Only Gingrich’s +24 points in late 1994 was lower. Others such as Boehner (in late 2010) and Nancy Pelosi (in late 2006) had net favorability ratings above +50 points among the party faithful.
Enten points out that McCarthy’s biggest asset is that there’s no dreamboat like Paul Ryan waiting in the wings like there was back in 2015. (Remember, Kevin got shoved aside because nobody liked him much then either…)
Will they find someone else? Steve Scalise seems to be the only viable option and he’s keeping his cards very close to the vest.
A number of Republicans may come to realize that while they can’t vote for McCarthy, there does not appear to be a viable Republican alternative to him becoming speaker at this time. They, therefore, may simply not vote “yes” or “no” on McCarthy at all. This would allow him to slip by assuming he still gets more votes for speaker than the new House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Either way, all of this GOP angst is a pretty decent consolation prize for Democrats after losing the House majority. If nothing else, they’re watching a Republican Party that can’t seem to get its act together after a historically bad midterm for an opposition party.
And if McCarthy does become speaker, his net favorability rating of -19 points among all adults would by far be the worst for any first-time House speaker in the last 30 years. He’s far more unpopular than either Gingrich (-9 points) or Pelosi (+18 points) were among all Americans when they were first elected speaker. Both of them later became political targets for the minority party to exploit.
Heh. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
I still suspect that he will end up speaker. But he is weak, weak, weak. And the wingnuts smell blood.