Let people know whom to blame when the GOP strangles the recovery
Democrats should promote the hell out of the Biden recovery (Washington Post):
The U.S. economy grew by 2.1 percent in 2022, notching six months of solid growth despite widespread concern that the country might be on the brink of a recession.
Those fears have been assuaged — at least for now. The economy posted another consecutive quarter of steady expansion between October and December, with economic activity increasing at a 2.9 percent annual rate. Consumer spending contributed to the strong fourth-quarter showing, especially given the slumps in large parts of the economy, including housing and manufacturing.
Admit weak spots where they exist (inflation is coming down, but is still too high), but trumpet the upsides. The GOP would even in a downturn.
“You may see [growth] and think the economy is out of the woods, but that would be entirely the wrong read,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America who expects a recession midyear. “There are a lot of variables that are all pointing in the same direction: There’s a housing recession. Manufacturing looks like it’s approaching recession. We’re seeing weakness in temp hiring. And it’s doubtful we’ve felt the full effects of all of the Fed’s rate hikes.”
The 2022 economy was, in many ways, defined by stubborn decades-high inflation. Higher prices on housing, food and gas strained family budgets and cut into corporate profits. The economy unexpectedly shrank in the first half of the year — setting off a flurry of recession fears — then returned to growth in the second half.
Washington Post economic columnist and Editorial Board member Heather Long tweets cold water at her paper’s own report painting a picture of an economy teetering on the edge of recession. Look at the bigger picture!
Economics is not my area. But then, facts are not the GOP.’s Neither are deficits when it’s a Republican president signing off on them. Politics is more a driver of the national narrative than economics.
Sure, you can’t buy groceries or gas with GDP, one respondent, observes. Even so:
More broadly, in the decade following the Great Recession, the U.S. economy grew between 1.5 percent and 2.9 percent each year. Although 2022 growth falls squarely within that range, economists say the seesawing numbers behind that average — two quarters of contraction, followed by two quarters of expansion — mask a host of unusual and conflicting data points.
“Unlike most recessions, where the bottom essentially falls out everywhere, we’re in a period where the pain is hitting pockets of the economy at different times,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “Everything isn’t pointing in the same direction, which isn’t the norm. It’s unique to the covid era.”
For every negative signal, there is a positive one. It’s Joe Biden’s and Democrats’ job to accentuate the positives as loudly as the GOP will the negatives and attempt to engineer more ahead of 2024. National politics is not about the raw numbers as much as about who controls the narrative the public hears.
Good policy is useless without good politics, Biden believes. Hard-sell the large-scale legislative achievements and double down on delivering more.