The Bulwark did some polling specifically to look at how many Republicans are intractable Trump supporters. As it turns out, he’s pretty weak in the party as a whole but there is a strong minority who are still do or die. And that’s a problem:
But, as Sarah notes, we need some historical context here. Even though most Republican voters want to move on from Trump, his solid core of support might be enough to win him early, winner-take-all-primaries. She reminds us what happened in 2016:
Iowa 24.3 percent (Trump came in second)
New Hampshire 35.3 percent (Trump came in first)
South Carolina 32.5 percent (Trump came in first)Trump then went on to dominate the field in Nevada with 45.9 percent of the vote before catapulting into Super Tuesday with enough momentum to win 7 of the 11 states. And with the GOP’s “winner take all” or “winner take most” delegate apportionment rules, in a big field of candidates, devoted pluralities can be telling.
The Always Trumpers
Here’s the dilemma for the GOP.
Despite clear evidence of Trump Fatigue, the “Always Trump” faction of the GOP will follow Trump to the gates of Hell.
One question that Sarah was anxious to test with this poll was “how many ‘Always Trumpers’ would follow Trump if he lost the GOP primary and launched an independent bid for president.”
And according to our poll, that 28 percent of Republican primary voters already locked in for Trump say they’ll support him even if he ran as an independent in the general election.
This is why it is dangerous to under-estimate Trump. Sarah writes:
[Even]though Trump is as weak as he’s ever been, even though he is beset by legal peril, and even though there are alternative candidates turning the heads of a large majority of GOP primary voters (and donors), Trump still has an awful lot going for him:
-100 percent name ID.
-A devoted base that will follow him on an independent run and potentially split the GOP vote. (And even if Trump doesn’t launch an independent bid, does anyone think he’s going to be a loyal Republican who supports the nominee if it isn’t him?)
-A big primary field of candidates who are scared of him and his base and therefore more likely to attack each other than Trump.
-New revelations that Biden and Pence also had classified docs at their homes and offices, nullifying Trump’s political (if not legal) vulnerability.
-An imminent return to Facebook and Twitter allowing him to fire up his small-dollar fundraising machine and push himself back into the news cycle.
None of that makes Trump a lock to win the nomination. But it’s certainly enough assets to make it possible.
I don’t know if Trump would run an independent race but I wouldn’t put it past him, would you? And I don’t think anyone should count on him being a good sport about losing and telling his cult to vote for the winner. Frankly, I’m not sure if they would do it even if he did. Many of them are in politics because of Trump and they don’t really see it as a serious civic duty.
If I were the Republicans I’d just cut my losses, let him win the nomination, lose the general and then do a total reset in 2028. They’re screwed as long as he’s in the mix. But I’m not a Republican. Obviously.