There was some polling done in Arizona recently and it’s very interesting:
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and a series of other Republicans in potential match-ups for Arizona’s 2024 Senate race, according to a new poll.
The poll from OH Predictive Insights released Thursday showed Gallego leading in eight hypothetical match-ups, four of which against Sinema running independently and four with Gallego facing a Republican in a head-to-head race.
The four Republicans included in the poll was former Gov. Doug Ducey, former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and former Senate nominee Blake Masters.
In a three-person race, Gallego leads by as little as 5 points in a race with Ducey and as much as 9 points in a race with Masters. He leads by 7 points in the race with Taylor Robson and by 8 points in the race with Lake.
He also leads in the two-person match-ups, but the margin varies significantly based on who the Republican candidate is. He leads by 4 points against Ducey and Taylor Robson, but he leads by 10 points against Lake and 11 points against Masters.
But more than 20 percent of respondents said they were undecided in all match-ups.
Gallego announced his bid for Senate to replace Sinema last month, arguing that Sinema has prioritized wealthier individuals over Arizona families. He has repeatedly criticized Sinema from the left in recent months.
Sinema, who was first elected to the Senate in 2018 as a Democrat, announced in December that she was leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an Independent senator. She said at the time that the decision was about “being true to who I am and how I operate” and giving a sense of belonging to people from Arizona and across the country who are “tired” of partisanship.
Sinema has not officially announced if she will run for reelection in 2024, but her party switch sets up the potential for a three-way race. Hogan: Inadvertently helping Trump could be ‘pretty good reason’ not to run in 2024Kirby says ‘no plans’ for Biden to enter Ukraine during trip to Poland
“What I take away from this data is that the two key factors in this Senate race will be the ‘style’ of Republican nominated to run and whether Sinema is also on the ballot,” Mike Noble, the polling firm’s chief of research, said in the release. “But, there’s a long time between now and election day, which leaves plenty of opportunity for something to happen that can shift the dynamics of this race.”
Gallego was the only candidate in the poll who had more respondents say they viewed favorably than unfavorably. Taylor Robson and Sinema’s numbers were only slightly underwater, while Lake and Masters are viewed significantly more unfavorably than favorably.
It looks like Kari Lake is going to go for it:
Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is inching closer to deciding to run for Senate, and her expected candidacy has frozen the Republican field in the state as other Senate hopefuls wait for her decision.
Lake, a former local television anchor who falsely claims that she won her 2022 race for Arizona governor, is consideredthe most formidable opponent in a Republican primary, and at least three Republican candidates also sizing up the race are waiting for her to make a decision before they decide to run, according to three people familiar with the situation who, like others in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly.
Lakeis eyeing a June timeline for announcing her plans, a person familiar with her thinking told The Post last week.
She enjoys the highest favorability ratings among Republican primary voters of five potential GOP candidates, followed by former GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, according to a private poll, portions of which were obtained by The Washington Post, that is viewed by Republican strategists as an accurate snapshot of the mood of the GOP electorate.Both candidates were endorsed by former president Donald Trump in their earlier bids.
The nuts are still in charge. Look what just happened this week:
Republicans here, reeling from a midterm election rout that many blamed on the influence of former president Donald Trump, respondedSaturdayby spurning the former president’s choice for state party chair — and choosing someone even more extreme.
Kristina Karamo, who refused to concede her 14-point loss for secretary of state in 2022, beat former attorney general candidate Matt DePerno, who had Trump’s endorsement, in three rounds of contentious voting. The chaotic 11-hour convention, featuring a rowdy standoff over voting procedures and 10 candidates who all ran under a pro-Trump banner, left no doubt that the bulk of the party’s activists in thiskey battleground state remain firmly committed to election denial and showed no interest in moderating their message to appeal to the political center.
“Conceding to a fraudulent person is agreeing with the fraud, which I will not do,” Karamo said to cheers in her campaign speech on Saturday.
She’s a real pip isn’t she? And it wasn’t just Trump who endorsed her rival, Kari Lake did too.
The Republican base does not listen to anyone but their own echo chamber and Trump doesn’t own that. He follows them, they don’t follow him.
This primary is going to be one for the books.