In his newsletter today, Dan Pfeiffer notes the contrast between President Biden and Ron DeSantis on President’s Day, when Biden went to Kiev and DeSantis went to Fox:
On the other side was Florida Governor and putative Presidential candidate Ron DeSantis appearing on Fox and Friends to slam President Biden for his offering “blank checks to Ukraine.” DeSantis told the hosts:
I and many Americans are thinking to ourselves, Ok, he’s very concerned about those borders halfway around the world. He’s not done anything to secure our own borders here… we have a lot of problems accumulating here.”
This moment was revelatory in two key ways. First, it demonstrated the challenge for Republicans trying to run against the Fox News caricature of “Sleepy Joe.” It’s hard to overstate the stature gap between a commander in chief astride the world stage and a Governor chopping it up Steve Doocy on a cable morning show. You can’t credibly argue that Biden isn’t up to the job, when he is blazoned across every screen doing the job in historically courageous ways. Presidents usually win reelection in part because they have the consistent opportunity to create made-for-media moments that dominate the national conversation.
Second, DeSantis’s decision to criticize Biden on Ukraine policy while the President was in a warzone speaks to the emerging isolationist politics in the Republican base that will shape the primary with potential consequences for the 2024 general election.
The Politics of Ukraine
Since the Vietnam War, Americans have had limited appetites for prolonged engagements overseas. This dynamic was greatly accelerated by George W. Bush’s poorly conceived and even more poorly executed War in Iraq. There is a rhythm to it. An event like the Russian invasion of Ukraine occurs. It dominates media coverage and conversation. Most of the country rallies to the cause. Over time, the media stops covering the story with the same intensity. Support begins to erode. Frustration develops that focus and resources are being spent abroad instead of at home.
This is largely how things have played out with the politics in Ukraine. While most Americans remain supportive of the U.S. support for Ukraine, support has waned in the last year. According to a poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs conducted in December, about two thirds of Americans support providing economic assistance to Ukraine, sending weapons and military supplies, and further economic sanctions on Russia. But the poll also shows that patience is not endless. The percentage of Americans who think that the U.S. should support Ukraine “as long a it takes” dropped from 58 percent in July 2022 to 48 percent.
While the public has expressed more support for Biden’s policies than confidence in his approach to implementing those policies, on its surface, the politics of Ukraine seem clear. The public — particularly Independents — very much sides with Biden and Zelensky over Putin and DeSantis — which raises the question of why DeSantis spent his President’s Day pushing an unpopular position.
The Ukraine Test
As the Republican base has gotten further radicalized, a chasm has grown between their politics and those of the rest of the country. This irreconcilable tension is perhaps most present on the issue of U.S. involvement in Ukraine.
Congress is going to have to pass more funding for Ukraine in the coming months. Enfeebled GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy has expressed reticence about agreeing to the Biden Administration’s request. During the Speaker’s race, McCarthy repeatedly stated his opposition as he sought the votes of the MAGA extremists. McCarthy’s position doesn’t just put him at odds with the majority of Americans and a plurality of Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and most other elected Republicans are big backers of aid to Ukraine. To the extent that they criticize the Biden Administration, it’s that more aggressive weapons should be sent more quickly.
McCarthy is picking a fight, he will almost certainly lose. So what the hell is he doing?
Well, the answer can be found in a very clever poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov. The pollsters broke out Republicans and Republicans that self-identify with the MAGA movement. Nearly half of Republicans want their Representative to support aid to Ukraine but only 36 percent of MAGA Republicans agree.
MAGA Republicans are not a small faction. CBS has tracking MAGA Republicans for a year and they have consistently accounted for about half of all Republicans.
This poll finding explains McCarthy’s losing gambit, DeSantis’s Fox and Friends interview, and most of what will happen in the upcoming Republican Presidential Primary.
It’s safe to infer that MAGA Republicans are more likely to vote in primaries, donate to candidates, and attend rallies. They generate the energy in the party and therefore given a choice, Republican politicians will appeal to them even at the risk of making their general elections more challenging. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver put it on Twitter in response to the DeSantis comments:
Granted, voters don’t care about foreign policy that much, but the emerging GOP stance on Russia/Ukraine is likely to be unpopular with swing voters and is giving Democrats a free wedge issue where they’ll be on the right side of public opinion in 2024.
DeSantis had a choice. He could have looked serious and Presidential in a serious moment. Instead, he chose a crass and cynical appeal to the base. It was a test and Ron DeSantis failed.
A lot can and will change before the first Republican primary, let alone the general election. The politics of Ukraine could shift dramatically as they did on the Iraq War. But in the meantime, the Republicans are replicating the exact same dynamic that cost them dearly in 2022.
Breaking out the MAGA voters is an interesting way to look at this. But I have to assuyme tht most of them are married to Dear Leader, right? Does Desantis have a prayer of winning them over with Trump in the race?
DeSantis went full MAGA this morning in his daily event for his 2023 Outrage Tour:
Someone mentioned this morning (sorry can’t recall who) that DeSantis is pulling outrageous stunts and holding provocative press conferences and events every day because he’s using the Trump method of shock and awe with the media. That makes sense. But I’d still give Trump the edge on all that. The wingnuts went nuts over his visit to McDonalds yesterday. Can DeSantis compete with that?