Monday morning geek-out
Reflecting on the studies E.J. Dionne referenced (post below), let’s consider where Democrats can narrow their vote margins and perhaps turn losses into wins.
The key to Democrats winning in 2024 and beyond could lie in turning out more independent voters in precincts where they lean Democrat.
My focus at the moment is how independent voters swing, especially in evenly divided states like North Carolina. (Donald Trump won the state in 2020 by under 1.5 points.) “Unaffiliated” voters (UNAs) here are the largest tranche of state registrants (36 percent in 2022), meaning Democrats must turn out D-leaners to win.
Except UNAs statewide voted only 42 percent for the Democrat at the top of the November ticket in the last two general elections. That performance, however, varies wildly by precinct. In mine, four out of five UNAs voted for Joe Biden.* In some of North Carolina’s largest counties, UNAs split as much as 60 percent for Democrats.
But take note. North Carolina’s UNAs also turned out in 2022 at roughly 6 percent below overall voter turnout statewide and 8-10 points below Democratic turnout in precincts where my estimates show they lean blue. Why is that, and what if they didn’t?
Improving D-leaning UNA turnout could mean the difference between winning and losing in both statewide and some local elections. In red counties in swing states, it may be enough to shave Republican margins to contribute to statewide wins. First, campaigns have to know where to look.
The problem is that whether campaigns target individual UNA voters is influenced by whether the voter requested a Democratic ballot in a past primary in states with open, partially open, or partially closed primaries. But how many is that?
Just over 9 percent of UNAs participated in North Carolina’s 2020 presidential primary. Only about 6 percent requested a Democratic ballot. It’s kind of tough to reach a 50%+1 winning threshold when you’re starting out targeting Democrats (34% of registrants in 2022) and only 6 percent of an electorate that votes with you only 42 percent of the time.
But in one close 2022 state House race I’ve looked at, boosting UNA turnout to near-D levels in blue-leaning precincts might have turned a D loss into a D win. With only a one-seat margin for defending his veto after the last election, Gov. Roy Cooper could have used that extra seat.
My suggestion to campaign managers and strategists in North Carolina and beyond is that they reconsider standard practice in how they identify independent/unaffiliated voters for their get-out-the-vote efforts. You may not know what you’re missing.
* NC’s election data is the most accessible I’ve encountered. With a simplifying assumption, it is possible to estimate using hard numbers how UNAs voted by precinct without relying on exit polling.