Dan Pfeiffer with an analysis of what went right in Wisconsin:
With respect to a couple of governors’ races happening later this year, the campaign for the Wisconsin State Supreme Court was the most important election of 2023. Judge Janet Protasiewicz’s victory over MAGA Republican Dan Kelly shifts the ideological balance of the court with dramatic implications for abortion rights, voting rights, and the integrity of the 2024 election. Wisconsin is one of the most gerrymandered states in the nation and a new Supreme Court could re-examine the maps to benefit democracy.
This is a huge win for Democrats. There are no two ways about it. Last night’s victory offers a good snapshot of this moment and provides applicable lessons going forward.
What the Win Says About 2024
Because they happen in a vacuum, elections like this one tend to be over-analyzed with broad conclusions about the state of politics. We should all bring a measure of humility to the analysis of a (relatively) low-turnout election nearly 18 months from the presidential election. This is particularly true in Wisconsin.
In February of 2012, Republican Governor Scott Walker defeated a Democratic-led recall attempt by seven points. Walker’s easy victory was seen by many as a sign of peril for Barack Obama’s reelection in the Badger State. But eight months later, Obama beat Romney by the same seven-point margin. There is little to no predictive value in Protasiewicz’s victory. It doesn’t tell us the odds that Biden will win the state in 2024. There is too much time and too many possible variables to make such a calculation. However, her win increases the likelihood that the true winner of the popular vote in Wisconsin will be the recipient of the state’s electoral votes. Dan Kelly actively participated in the 2020 effort to overturn the election. A victory by Kelly would have meant a State Supreme Court that could have rubberstamped an effort by Republicans in the Wisconsin legislature to overturn a Biden victory.
Trump Remains an Anvil Around Republican Necks
It’s impossible at this juncture to know what — if any — role the news of Trump’s indictment played in the result. Like the midterm, the entire election occurred in a news environment defined by the various investigations into the former President. And once again, a Republican lost an election they should have won by a larger-than-expected margin.
It is telling that Trump did not endorse Kelly in this race. Kelly is a MAGA Republican through and through. Trump endorsed Kelly in his 2020 bid to win a seat on the same court. The Republicans clearly believed that another Trump endorsement would hurt more than it would help. But whether Trump formally endorsed him or not, Kelly was closely associated with Trump and his efforts to steal the 2020 election. Like Herschel Walker, Blake Masters, Kari Lake and the rest, Kelly was easily branded as a MAGA Republican.
Despite talk of Trump being “Teflon Don,” he’s not very good at winning elections. Since Trump’s 2016 victory, Republicans have lost in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, and now 2023. The GOP’s only victory in the last eight years was in Virginia in 2021 when Glenn Youngkin did everything in his power to avoid being seen with or even uttering Trump’s name.
The manner in which Republicans have embraced Trump in the wake of his arrest will likely exacerbate their political problems for the foreseeable future.
The Value of Long-Term Investments and 24/7 Organizing
In the past, this is the sort of election Democrats would lose. We typically build up massive, well-funded political organizations to win elections and then, the day after the race is called, everyone goes home and the money dries up. The campaign offices shut down, the volunteer lists atrophy, and the headquarters is a ghost town. Republicans relied on the grassroots power of local evangelical groups and millions in dark money from outside groups. Therefore, they had less of a drop off for these off-cycle elections.
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler has built an always-on organizing juggernaut. Wisconsin Democrats never stopped after Governor Tony Evers reelection in November. Ben traveled the country making the case for a steady stream of investments in party infrastructure. He convinced thousands of people to become monthly recurring donors to the party. This means he has a steady stream of revenue and the ability to plan long-term, as opposed to waiting around for a huge surge of money at the end. Late money can mostly only be spent on television ads and has diminishing returns compared to money that comes in much earlier in the cycle.
By raising money via a large grassroots network, the Wisconsin Democrats gave Protasiewicz a big advantage on the air. This often gets lost in political coverage, but TV stations are required by law to give candidates a lower rate on advertising than outside groups like SuperPACs. The Republicans in this race were forced to use outside groups to fund their ads, which means that even though they spent more money, the Protasiewicz campaign ran more ads.
The Wisconsin Democratic Party is a model of what Democrats need in all 50 states and I will sleep better at night knowing that Ben and his team will be on the job in 2024.
It’s a model for the country. Hopefully people elsewhere are paying attention. (I’d put Florida at the top of that list…)
By the way, get a load of the jackass who lost that Supreme Court seat:
Donald Trump’s party is filled with classless, whiny, crybaby, snowflake, losers. pic.twitter.com/lsrwuxCCw8
