The polls are all going in the wrong direction for DeSantis:
Nearly half (45%) of Republican voters – including those who lean toward the GOP – say Trump is definitely the strongest candidate to beat President Joe Biden in 2024, and another 18% think he is probably the strongest candidate. Just one-third of GOP voters say another Republican would definitely (13%) or probably (19%) be a stronger candidate than Trump.
Among voters who name Trump as their top-of-mind preference for the GOP presidential nomination, 74% say he is definitely the strongest candidate the party can put up against Biden and 21% say he probably is. Among those who express support for another candidate or have no choice at this stage, nearly 4 in 10 still feel Trump is either definitely (23%) or probably (16%) the strongest nominee the GOP can field. Only 22% of this group says the strongest Republican contender would definitely be someone other than Trump and 33% say it would probably be another candidate.
“If your main argument to Republican voters is that Trump wouldn’t be the party’s strongest nominee, you’ve got a heck of a challenge ahead of you,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “There’s a bit of a chicken and egg problem with assessing electability. As we found in our polling during the 2020 Democratic primaries, if voters back a candidate based on issues or character they also tend to feel that candidate is the most electable. However, this still underscores the larger point in this poll. If your message to voters who support Trump is he cannot win, you are going to hit a brick wall. Even if you eat into the group who thinks he is only ‘probably’ the strongest candidate, you may still not capture enough of the Republican electorate to overcome Trump’s hardcore base support.”
When asked without any prompting whom they would like to see as the Republican nominee for president in 2024, 43% of GOP-aligned and leaning voters name Trump. This is similar to his 41% support level in March and up from prior polls (33% in February and 26% last December). DeSantis is named by just 19%, which marks a steady decline from 39% in December (including 33% in February and 27% in March). No other candidate breaks out of the single-digits as a top-of-mind preference for GOP voters, which has been the case since Monmouth started polling the 2024 contest late last year. Even in a hypothetical 4-person contest with named candidates, Trump (56%) and DeSantis (25%) command the lion’s share of support. The other specified candidates in this scenario, former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, each muster just 7% support.
In a hypothetical head-to-head contest between just the top two contenders, 56% of GOP voters would choose Trump for the party’s nomination and 35% would pick DeSantis. Back in February, DeSantis (53%) had more support than Trump (40%). That shifted to an evenly divided contest in March (47% Trump and 46% DeSantis). Currently, Trump now holds an advantage in practically every Republican voting bloc, with the noticeable exception of college graduates. Three months ago, DeSantis led among major demographic groups within the party.
Trump convinced them that he actually won 2020 in a landslide. Why wouldn’t they think he’s the most likely to win again? And since the cowardly clown car that’s running against him won’t say any different they have no reason to question their logic. It’s pathetic.