Probably not
In his newsletter today, Dan Pfeiffer lays out the reasons that Trump might not be as formidable as we think. He looks at the polls in the two early states which show him weaker than he is nationally. (He’s still strong mind you…)
This is more interesting:
Many assumed that Trump’s mounting legal problems would hurt him politically. To date, they have not. The biggest impact of the 78 felony charges may be logistical. Trump will spend most of the campaign in court and dealing with various legal entanglements. This graphic from MSNBC’s Morning Joe lays out how challenging the calendar will be for the former President:
This past week has been instructive for how the rest of the campaign may play out. This week:
Trump engaged in a multi-day fight with the judge in the January 6th case over a possible protective order restricting his ability to talk about the case;
The media reported that Special Counsel Jack Smith was investigating Trump’s Super PAC for potential financial crimes related to raising money off knowingly false election fraud claims;
We learned that Smith used a subpoena to access Trump’s Twitter direct messages as part of his wide ranging probe;
Reports came out that Fulton County DA Fani Willis is expected to indict Trump and a number of other Republicans for trying to overturn the election in Georgia.
It’s a lot! This is just five or so days of news coverage.
Time is the one non-renewable resource on the campaign. You can always raise more money, hire more staff or run more ads, but you can’t get more time. Every minute Trump spends trying to stay out of jail, is a minute not spent campaigning in the early states. If Judge Chutkan were to grant Jack Smith his preferred trial date in the 1/6 case, Trump would be in court starting two weeks before the Iowa Caucus. He would then be there through the New Hampshire primary — at least. As a campaign strategy, being in front of the jurors instead of the voters seems suboptimal.
It’s not just the calendar. Staying out of jail costs money and the various cases are beginning to take their toll on Trump’s political operation. According to the New York Times:
New financial reports show that the former president’s various political committees and the super PAC backing him have used roughly 30 cents of every dollar spent so far this year on legal-related costs. The total amounts to more than $27 million in legal fees and other investigation-related bills in the first six month
These cases will only get more expensive moving closer to trial.
This logistical logjam and cash crunch is not enough to cause Trump’s defeat, but I think we are collectively underestimating how challenging this situation will be for Trump’s campaign.
I dunno. He has his own plane and as much money as he needs to hold his rallies even after a long day in court. I could easily see him flying off the minute court adjourns and regaling his fans with complaints about it. I think this is important enough to him that he will even spend his own money if he has to.
Honestly, all these things keep him at the top of the news which is how he maintains his hold on the cult. It really doesn’t matter what they’re seeing, he’ll spin it to his benefit with them. In a general election, the dynamic may be the opposite. If he’s on trial once the nomination is decided, it could actually help Biden with turnout.
He goes on to suggest that Trump could lose if it suddenly seems that another candidate has the juice to beat Biden. I guess that’s possible but it sure doesn’t seem likely at this point.
He ends with this:
I am not predicting that Trump will lose the primary. The most likely outcome — by far — is a 2024 rematch between President Biden and Donald Trump.
There are two big questions. First, do any of Trump’s opponents have what it takes to seize the opening that may appear? To date, this collection of clowns and cowards are running to either be Trump’s Vice President, a Fox News commentator, or host a podcast on the Bulwark’s network. Second, will the field narrow before Iowa and New Hampshire?
If neither of those things happens, Trump wins will, and he wins easily.
Anything’s possible, including the possibility that he’ll drop dead on the golf course. But it’s pretty far-fetched otherwise. I would have said that even when Ron DeSantis was the next Great Whitebread hope. Since his meltdown it’s even more remote IMO.
But never say never. When it comes to Trump nothing is predictable.