“These aren’t just one-off election wins”
As Donald Trump gets crazier, as his Capitol Hill shock troops prove more dysfunctional, and as the noisy hostiles in MAGAstan grow more hostile, it’s reassuring to know that the country hasn’t gone completely mental.
Whatever 2024 presidential contest polling indicates a year out, Democrats continue to win the only polls that matter: vote counts. Reid J. Epstein reminds New York Times readers:
In special elections this year for state legislative offices, Democrats have exceeded Mr. Biden’s performance in the 2020 presidential election in 21 of 27 races, topping his showing by an average of seven percentage points, according to a study conducted by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s campaign arm for state legislative races.
Those results, combined with an 11-point triumph for a liberal State Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin this spring and a 14-point defeat of an Ohio ballot referendum this summer in a contest widely viewed as a proxy battle over abortion rights, run counter to months of public opinion polling that has found Mr. Biden to be deeply unpopular heading into his re-election bid next year.
Taken together, these results suggest that the favorable political environment for Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade has endured through much of 2023. Democratic officials have said since the summer of 2022, when the ruling came down, that abortion is both a powerful motivator for the party’s voters and the topic most likely to persuade moderate Republicans to vote for Democratic candidates.
Don’t let the media chaff “snow” you.
Last week, after Democrats won special elections to maintain control of the Pennsylvania House and flip a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire House, Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, emailed donors to say the results showed Mr. Biden’s political strength.
“These aren’t just one-off election wins,” she wrote. “They prove that our message is resonating with voters — and that we can’t write off any corner of the country.”
Crisis mode
Congress is still on a collision course with shutdown, reports the Associated Press:
With a government shutdown five days away, Congress is moving into crisis mode as Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces an insurgency from hard-right Republicans eager to slash spending even if it means curtailing federal services for millions of Americans.
There’s no clear path ahead as lawmakers return with tensions high and options limited. The House is expected to vote Tuesday evening on a package of bills to fund parts of the government, but it’s not at all clear that McCarthy has the support needed to move ahead.
But press accounts continue describing a government shutdown preciptated by Republicans as some kind of natural political disaster. Brian Beutler calls that out and believes it will not fool the public.
Watch this November’s state legislative elections closely, particularly in Virginia.