File under ‘Sunk-cost fallacy’
Jenna Ellis this week is the fourth Trump attorney to learn the hard way that loyalty to Donald Trump is a fool’s game. David Graham writes in The Atlantic, “Loyalty to Trump is seldom returned, with disastrous results for those who offer it.” Ellis pleaded guilty to a single felony in an Atlanta courtroom and offered a tearful apology:
“As an attorney who is also a Christian, I take my responsibilities as a lawyer very seriously and I endeavor to be a person of sound moral and ethical character in all of my dealings,” she said, her voice breaking with emotion. “If I knew then what I know now, I would have declined to represent Donald Trump in these post-election challenges. I look back on this whole experience with deep remorse.”
Another former Trump attorney who received jail time in exchange for his years of fealty to Trump testified against him in the New York fraud trial yesterday in Manhattan.
Graham observes:
If Ellis and Cohen are not in good company, they are at least in big company. Over the years, many people have agreed to work for Trump and put their reputations, to say nothing of criminal records, on the line for him. The former president demands near-total fealty, browbeating and punishing allies for any deviations. (Just ask Representative Tom Emmer, who became the GOP’s latest nominee for speaker of the House today, and then almost immediately became the former nominee, after Trump blasted him on his social-media site.) But when these loyal lieutenants need the favor repaid, Trump ghosts them.
This one-way loyalty has burned boldface names and relative nobodies alike. Many of the people who served in Trump’s administration or served as his allies in Congress have found themselves diminished and sometimes legally ensnared. Many of the people convicted for their participation in the January 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol have expressed anger at Trump and said they felt hoodwinked by him. He has floated the idea of pardoning them if he regains the presidency. Even if he wins, they should know that his track record of following through is bad.
More are likely to follow these four. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, in particular, although there are other by-now familiar names. Theirs will enter the history books in a chapter following those on Richard Nixon’s Watergate goons and Ronald Reagan’s Iran-Contra accomplices.
Part of the explanation is the attractions of power. Like moths to a flame, as it were. But in Trump’s case, our culture of celebrity wealth drew people to him first. Trump knew “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” sold soap long before Robin Leach began doing it in the mid-1980s. Look again at the cover shot on the 2018 New York Times expose on the Trump Organization. It’s a leftover from the Times’ 1976 profile of the self-promoting Trump who we now know claimed “his father’s wealth as his own” to boost his image as a budding real estate mogul. But he conned the Times into believing. Victims of “Anna Delvey” bought her rich girl con as well.
Trump was a fraud then. He is a fraud now.
Many victims of cons delay admitting their mistake. They know in their guts that they’ve been scammed, but hold out hope that thay have not. It’s a defense mechanism against humiliation not unlike the sunk-cost fallacy, “our tendency to follow through on an endeavor if we have already invested time, effort, or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.”
Like Trump’s attorneys, the rest of MAGAstan is so heavily invested in Trumpism that letting it go will be a severe hit to believers’ self-esteem:
The sunk cost fallacy occurs because we are not purely rational decision-makers, and we are often influenced by our emotions. When we have previously invested in a choice, we will likely feel guilty or regretful if we do not follow through. The sunk cost fallacy is associated with commitment bias, where we continue to support our past decisions despite new evidence suggesting that it isn’t the best course of action.
We fail to consider that whatever time, effort, or money we have already expended will not be recovered. We end up making decisions based on past costs instead of present and future costs and benefits, which are the only ones that rationally make a difference.
The sunk cost fallacy may, in part, occur due to loss aversion, which describes that the impact of losses feels much worse to us than the impact of gains. We are more likely to avoid losses than seek out gains. We may feel that our past investment will be ‘lost’ if we don’t follow through on the decision, and make our choice based on loss aversion rather than consider the benefits gained if we do not continue our commitment.
The same applies to cults and to why it’s so hard to escape them. Jan. 6 convicts and Trump’s lieutenants are finding out the hard way. MAGAs are attracted to Trump because many already feel like they’ve lost status in an increasingly multicultural America. He conned them into feeling like society’s winners again. They won’t give that up readily.