Stop white-knuckling polls
Everybody Relax. The Net economy runs on clicks. The polling economy runs on polls. Cable news runs on ratings 24/7/365. All make money promoting a horse race with a photo finish.
MSNBC kept flipping back to Steve Kornacki updating returns from the Kentucky governor’s race Tuesday night long after Dave Wasserman of Cook’s Political Report had “seen enough.” The Associated Press called the race for incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear 90 minutes later. So it goes.
On Election Night, we don’t count policy positions or polling averages or pundits’ opinions. We count votes. It’s how democracies keep score.
And last night? Last night was “nearly a clean sweep” for Democrats.
Beshear won another term in “red” Kentucky on an explicit abortion rights campaign against his GOP challenger. Beshear went straight at Daniel Cameron on the abortion issue with this powerful ad featuring rape survivor Hadley Duvall.
“Because of her courage, this commonwealth is going to be a better place and people are going to reach out for the help they need,” Beshear told supporters.
Democrats kept control of the Virginia state Senate and flipped control of the House of Delegates, dealing a blow to Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R). Republicans had been looking to outlaw abortions in Virginia after 15 weeks.
“Glenn Youngkin got fleeced tonight,” quipped Norm Ornstein.
Abortion rights advocates won major victories Tuesday as voters in conservative-leaning Ohio decisively passed a constitutional amendment guaranteeing access to abortion, while those in ruby-red Kentucky reelected a Democratic governor who aggressively attacked his opponent for supporting the state’s near-total ban on the procedure.
[…]
The results sent a stark signal about enduring demands across the political spectrum to protect access to abortion more than a year after Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, heralding potentially far-reaching implications for the 2024 election. They offered more evidence that the end of Roe and the patchwork of abortion bans that followed have given Democrats a powerful argument to turn out their base and sway moderates and some Republicans. And they reaffirmed that GOP candidates who support restrictions are still struggling to find an effective message, even as some have tried to soften their pitch.
Democrats everywhere in 2024 will want to listen more to voters than to pundits and consultants. Americans are angry about the demise of Roe v. Wade. Democrats own that issue. It motivates voters.
“Across the country tonight, democracy won and MAGA lost,” President Joe Biden tweeted last night. “Voters vote. Polls don’t. Now let’s go win next year.”
Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles is an unabashed cheerleader for Democrats. But for your edification, he wrote last night, “As we did in 2018, 2020, 2022 and as we’ve had night after night across the country this year. The Democratic Party is very strong right now. The Republicans are in deep trouble.” Tuck that under your pillows.
But don’t expect the press to abandon its hyping of every poll that promotes a “Biden in trouble” narrative. Press incentives have not changed and likely will not. The press is quick to report and slow to learn.
“I think some political reporters should try a little harder to hide their disappointment at Dems over performing relative to Biden’s approval ratings but that’s just me,” posted Adam Serwer of The Atlantic at Blue Sky.
So, step away from the ledge, folks.
Maybe not you, Rick.
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