A seismic shift possible
Next year’s presidential election will be like no other. No matter who the major party candidates are. After the last, the outgoing Oval Office occupant instigated a violent insurrection to retain power that he could not win at the ballot box. The 2024 campaign will inform the world whether our nation “conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal” can endure much longer.
Polls taken this early suggest that a race between incumbent Joe Biden and Donald Trump is tight. The House Jan. 6 committee determined that Trump “lit that fire” on Jan. 6. The Colorado Supreme Court, having found there was “no question” that Trump supported the insurrection, has disqualified him from the state’s ballot. Federal and state felony charges against Trump for his actions stand pending trial.
Norman Eisen, Celinda Lake and Anat Shenker-Osorio suggest the race could shift significantly if Trump is convicted before November 2024. First, those trials have to occur and reach that conclusion (New York Times):
Yet we have seen the effect in several national surveys, like a recent Wall Street Journal poll. In a hypothetical matchup between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump leads by four percentage points. But if Mr. Trump is convicted, there is a five-point swing, putting Mr. Biden ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.
In another new poll by Yahoo News-YouGov, the swing is seven points. In a December New York Times-Siena College poll, almost a third of Republican primary voters believe that Mr. Trump shouldn’t be the party’s nominee if he is convicted even after winning the primary.
The damage to Mr. Trump is even more pronounced when we look at an important subgroup: swing-state voters. In recent CNN polls from Michigan and Georgia, Mr. Trump holds solid leads. The polls don’t report head-to-head numbers if Mr. Trump is convicted, but if he is, 46 percent of voters in Michigan and 47 percent in Georgia agree that he should be disqualified from the presidency.
In a sane country, that assessment would be a no-brainer. But we are not a sane country.
An October Times/Siena poll indicates the conviction gut-punch for Trump would be stronger in swing states, leading to Biden victories in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin where Biden is already favored. The shift would be “seismic,” with Biden winning by 10 rather than losing by four percentage points.
The same poll also provides insights into the effect a Trump conviction would have on independent and young voters, which are both pivotal demographics. Independents now go for Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 44 percent. However, if he is convicted, 53 percent of them choose Mr. Biden, and only 32 percent Mr. Trump.
The movement for voters aged 18 to 29 was even greater. Mr. Biden holds a slight edge, 47 percent to 46 percent, in the poll. But after a potential conviction, Mr. Biden holds a commanding lead, 63 percent to 31 percent.
The allegations must first be proven before a jury, but even ongoing trials will affect voters’ perceptions. The incredible shrinking “red wave” of 2022 dissipated in the wake of the Jan. 6 committee hearings. MAGA Republicans across the country lost their races. Trump’s legal entanglements next year could cost him.
What does this say about Americans’ mood? The authors find:
… Americans care about our freedoms, especially the freedom to cast our votes, have them counted and ensure that the will of the voters prevails. They are leery of entrusting the Oval Office to someone who abused his power by engaging in a criminal conspiracy to deny or take away those freedoms.
Yet Trump has promised to do more than corrupt elections if elected. Freedom as we know it will become a memory. His Christian nationalist supporters mean to relegate other faiths and nonbelievers to second-class citizen status, to bellow about Muslim sharia law while imposing their own version. Trump means to turn civil service into a national patronage system for toadies. He means to turn the Department of Justice into his personal brute squad.
Felony criminal convictions, the authors explain, “will foreground the threat that Mr. Trump poses to our nation and influence voters in an election-defining way.” But those could come too late or never.
It will be a mistake for Democrats to sit on their heels awaiting that day when convictions come down. Trump will delay proceedings beyond November if he can. The Great Sedition Trial of 1944 that Rachel Maddow recounts in her “Ultra” podcast and in “Prequel: An American Fight Against Fascism” ended in a mistrial. The defendants turned that trial into a circus first. Trump would certainly try, even while splitting his time between campaigning and staying out of prison.
Many American voters will find the prospect of a Trumpish hellscape in which they lose their freedoms too abstract to be motivating and, until they occur, Trump convictions as well. Even then, Trump will appeal again and again no matter his prospects of success. Delay and uncertainty work in his favor.
Democrats must not wait for convictions to turn public opinion. Democrats must foreground the pending felony charges and trials themselves, and now. Replace “former president” with “indicted felon” at every opportunity. Waiting for the outcome of the trials is a grave strategic error.
Happy Hollandaise!