It’s going to be momentous, no matter which way it goes
Author Brynn Tannehill tweeted this and I think she’s right. No matter what happens in the election in 2024, we are in for tremendous tumult. Even so, there is only one thinkable outcome. It won’t be easy and the aftermath may very well be violent. But it’s infinitely better than the alternative.
I’m going to bookmark once I post this, because it’s about what’s going to happen in 2024. I’m going out on a limb to say that regardless of what specifically happens, this is going to end up being mentioned along with 1860 as watershed moments in US history.
Look, it’s easy to say that if Trump wins, it’s going to be chaos. We’ll see his new cabinet coming in. They’ll be telegraphing their intentions, and it’s going to be mayhem. Protests will already be happening, and Trump will already be promising to quash them.
So, if Trump wins, on December 31st, 2024 we will be living in a nation holding it’s breath for the chaos and horror that comes next, whether it’s a theocratic fascist dictatorship, or a nation that Balkanizes in the attempt. If Trump wins, we get one or the other.
But let’s suppose he doesn’t. In that case, he’s on his way to prison. The MAGA movement will be incensed, howling for blood, and p***ed that SCOTUS didn’t save their guy. There’s no way Republicans accept the results of the election if it’s close.
And if it isn’t close, it’s going to because Trump got convicted somewhere, and a bunch of states were forced to take him off the general election ballot because of laws prohibiting convicted felons from running (or being on the ballot).
In this latter case (again) there’s going to be anger, and an even stronger drive coming from within southern states to cease recognizing the authority of the federal government.
If Trump loses, I also expect desperate shenanigans along the lines of the fake electors schemes, refusal to certify the election in the Senate or House if the GOP controls either. I also expect violence.
Regardless of who wins the 2024 election (Biden/Trump) it’s ugly.
I also foresee a Supreme Court that continues to weaken it’s credibility regardless of how it rules. They’re now in a position where they’ll have to pick a side in a hopelessly divided nation. If they delay enough to allow Trump into office, it makes Balkanization likelier
Of course, there will be Black Swan events. Maybe Trump or Biden suffers a medical emergency. Maybe the GOP fractures after a Trump conviction and Trump / Haley split the GOP votes. Maybe Trump does something so heinous that he loses cleanly.
(The last is REALLY unlikely, the GOP base will never abandon him).
But, at the end of the day, we have an angry fascist movement that will stop at nothing to seize power and abuse it.
2024 will decide if they take power legitimately like Germany in 33 or Russia in 99.
It’s going to be ugly in the US between 2024 and 2028. Way uglier than what we saw after the 2020 election. The question is, what SORT of ugly will it be?
2024 is going to determine what sort of suck we’re facing going forward.
Even if Biden wins, we’ll see efforts to discredit the election and the courts. We’ll see efforts to overturn the election. Afterwards, we’ll see red states going even harder right and more autocratic, relying on SCOTUS to bail them out, and ignoring them when convenient.
And if Trump wins, next New Year’s will be one of terror and despair for me, most LGBT people, and their families. It will be for a lot of other people who understand what the Trump administration is about to do.
But, one way or another, 2024 is going to a watershed.
There is no doubt about it. No need to belabor what will happen if Trump wins.
If Biden wins we might get lucky and the air will just go out of the MAGA cult and his followers will content themselves with whining on social media and yelling at people on the street as they did when they won in 2016. (Yes, they do this even when they win.) But I imagine there will be some sort of violent paroxysm of anger that will be disturbing if not truly terrifying. We need to be prepared for anything..