Republicans fear running on empty
Republican control of the U.S. House was dramatically unproductive in 2033. The caucus spent more time mugging for cameras, stalling important bills, ousting their own speaker, and investigating Hunter and Joe Biden (with nothing to show for it) than they did legislating. They worry now it may come back to bite them in the fall elections (Washington Post):
“It’s been a tough year for us,” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who as the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is tasked with keeping the majority. “I think most people in Congress — Republicans and Democrats — ran to make a difference, to make the country better, not to come up here and have these kinds of disagreements. So it is frustrating, and it’s tiring.”
What their idea of making a difference is isn’t apparent.
“What a motormouth!” was how one relation described Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) “Meet the Press” appearance on Sunday. Stefanik set out to prove what an effective ventriloquist dummy she could be for Donald Trump as his vice president. She did everything in her audition but kowtow for him on camera.
Many of Stefanik’s colleagues see a congressional perch primarily as a platform for auditioning for a V.P. slot or a Fox News gig or a think tank sinecure. Governing earns little time in their schedules.
Many Republicans hope the new year brings with it a broad desire to govern and, in turn, prove to the public that they deserve another term in control of the House. But the question of how Republicans across the ideological spectrum define success is already primed to plague the conference as it starts the year with just three votes to spare to pass anything through its fragile majority.
One wonders if “many Republicans hope” is as vaporous as Trump’s “many people say.” The problem the G.O.P. House majority faces is its most vocally visible members are more interested in waging a grandstanding culture war for news hits than in governing.
The New York Times this morning examines how its contact with Trumpism has changed character of the evangelical movement:
“I voted for Trump twice, and I’ll vote for him again,” said Cydney Hatfield, a retired corrections officer in Lohrville, a town of 381 people in Calhoun County. “He’s the only savior I can see.”
For others, the evangelical brand is now so tarnished that some believers who once embraced the label now reject it. Republicans in the House caucus have the same concern about themselves.
The Post again:
“We have to start governing. … Playing politics with every single issue is not helpful,” said Rep. David G. Valadao (R-Calif.), who represents a swing district. “We need to get to the point where we can start passing legislation and getting something to the president’s desk that actually solves problems for the American people.”
A majority of Republicans, more than a dozen of whom spoke to The Washington Post, agreed they need to pass bills that will allow them to draw policy contrasts with Democrats on the campaign trail. Buthard-liners are much more willingto shut down the government or risk the majority in an effort to ensure that their campaign promises — particularly to rein in federal spending and secure the U.S.-Mexico border — become law. Members of the House Freedom Caucus are particularly incensed over [House Speaker Mike] Johnson’s decision to previously support a short-term extension of federal funding levels — set by congressional Democrats in 2022 — to keep the government open, as well as their colleagues’ willingness to vote with Democrats rather than force conservative demands. Hard-liners have already sent warning shots in hopes of influencing Johnson and GOP leaders to use every opportunity to extract policy concessions from a Democratic-led Senate and White House.
The hardliners are ready again to instigate a partial government shutdown on Jan. 19 in a fight over border security. They’d rather have xenophobia as a wedge issue in November.
Though Republicans largely agree on policy objectives, they remain deeply divided on how to achieve united, partisan wins that could help them credibly argue that their party deserves to retainthe House majority and take back control of the Senate and White House. But even ideas on how to keep the majority are split: Hard-right lawmakers insist the MAGA agenda will help elect more like-minded hard-liners who can help enact laws that advance ultraconservative goals, while more pragmatic Republicans believe their chances of keeping the House rely on reelecting swing-district incumbents and other conservatives willing to compromise.
The NRCC is targeting 37 Democratic-held districts that they believe are within their grasp as Biden’s approval rating has reached all-timelows and polling has shown that voters prefer Republicans on key issues like the economy and public safety.
But as much as House Republicans fret over their nonperformance in 2023, they might worry more about the party’s underperformances in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The MAGA agenda is not terrible popular with the country as a whole even though they picked up some seats in 2020 when Trump famously lost his reelection bid. For his third attempt at the White House Trump is burdened with more chains than Marley’s ghost.
As for the top of the ticket — following a 2022 election in which many Senate and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by Donald Trump lost in key races — Republicans find themselves again most likely running with the embattled former president, who is facing dozens of felony charges in several criminal cases. Hudson said he is not going to tell Republicans “what they should do in the presidential” race and notedt hat House Republicans were still able to pick up 15 seats in 2020 when Trump was on the ticket and lost the presidency.
But 2020 was before the Dobbs decision put womens’s rights front and center. News out of the states since than has only made women’s health and autonomy a more fraught issue for Republicans.
The rest of the report is more of the same. Republicans’ worst enemies right now are other Republicans. That’s the kind of Blue Monday I can get behind.