Some college educated former Trump voters have had it
I keep hearing anecdotal reports of Republicans who are saying they will not vote for Trump this time. I don’t know if they aren’t being represented in the polls or what, but there’s a lot of it and since it’s coming from the GOP primary reporting it’s worth mentioning. This one from Jonathan Martin at Politico who followed the Haley campaign for a while and had this impression:
The most memorable feature of Haley’s otherwise forgettable gathering was not what she said but the nature of her audience — and how it explains why Trump is poised to win overwhelmingly in Iowa on Monday but will face the same general election challenges in 2024 he did in 2020.
I would have liked to see more discussion of that but this piece was about the GOP voters who are rejecting Trump. But it’s important that someone mention this general election dynamic, even in passing. Maybe he’ll develop that in a later piece.
I struggled to find a single attendee in the suburban strip mall tavern who was not a college graduate. Similarly, the day before, I couldn’t find a Haley admirer who showed up to see her in Sioux City who was not also a college graduate.
“She’s reasonable,” Jim Maine, a Waukee resident, said of Haley. “Originally I was favoring DeSantis, but he just hasn’t connected.”
Maine had no use for Trump, calling the former president “a jilted junior high boyfriend” who “makes up names for people.”
A retiree, Maine was an accountant for an insurance company — “pretty standard around here,” as he put it of Dallas County. Now, none of his neighbors “who voted for [Trump] the last couple of times are going to vote for him again.”
If it all sounds like a windup to a sort of cul-de-sac Pauline Kaelism — I don’t know anyone in our homeowners association voting for Trump! — well, that’s the defining story of today’s Republican Party. The GOP’s traditional, professional class base is eager to move on from somebody they find between embarrassing and appalling, but the party’s beating heart is now Trump-loving working class voters.
The old Republican construct of establishment-vs-conservative — one that DeSantis, in particular, is operating under as he runs to the right — is about as relevant to the Trump era as the Blackberry. The most consequential fault line in this race and in GOP politics broadly is based on class.
That’s how Democratic primaries have been covered, and rightfully so, for the last 40 years. The candidate able to emerge as the beer-track hopeful almost always emerges as the nominee while the wine-track hopeful is limited to pinot-sipping precincts (hat tip to Ron Brownstein for the terminology).
This race is scarcely different.
Haley and DeSantis are largely competing for the votes of Iowa’s upscale voters — DeSantis was in Waukee last week — while Trump is on course to roll with the overwhelming support of blue-collar Iowans.
It is, of course, a delicate topic anywhere, but even more so with voters who pride themselves on being Iowa Nice.
One couple at Haley’s event in Waukee was happy to discuss their support for her but asked I not use their names for what they had to say about the former president.
“All our friends who voted for Trump have moved onto other candidates,” said the husband, a retired banker from nearby Polk County, the largest jurisdiction in the state. “But they’re all Polk County people. You get out to rural Iowa, and you start talking to them …”
His voice trailed off as he talked in disbelief about how Trump’s felony counts only reinforce his support with such voters.
In separate polls conducted by the Des Moines Register and Fox Business last month, Trump had the support of 61 percent of Iowans without college degrees while his two main opponents were only in the teens or below.
And the reason why Haley has such high hopes in New Hampshire, particularly if Chris Christie drops out, is because the state is an outlier in the modern party: less religious, more educated and wealthier. She and Christie are sitting on the votes of a heavily upscale demographic, which if combined could make for a competitive race.
Consider the new CNN-University of New Hampshire poll there: Haley is now only down to Trump by single digits because she is soundly defeating him among voters there with a college degree and even more heavily among those with an advanced degree.
Haley’s challenge is that New Hampshire may only represent a false dawn, a blip before the primary returns to states with a downscale demographic more like Iowa.She may find hope in New Hampshire, but that would only tempt her to return home to South Carolina and discover that she’s Hootie and the Blowfish to Trump’s Taylor Swift.
Ouch.
I think he’s right about all this. New Hampshire is an outlier in the primaries and there’s little chance that Haley’s going to be able to gather enough delegates even if she does well in big states like California which is voting early this year.
But what’s important about this is the fact that these people are saying they won’t vote for Trump again in the general election. It would be preferable if they would hold their Republican noses and vote for Biden but if they want to stay home that’s certainly ok too.
Trump is not going to wear any better on this faction of the GOP. He’s going to alienate them even more because he is under 91 indictments and acts downright demented on the trail spewing Nazi rhetoric. I don’t know how many of these disaffected Republicans are out there but it only takes a few to make a huge difference in the swing states.