Florida Democrats flip state House seat
With few exceptions (Hi, Hillsborough!) Democrats in Florida have not been showing us how it’s done lately. Maybe that’s changing (Daily Kos):
Florida Democrats kicked off the new year with a major victory as businessman and Navy veteran Tom Keen flipped a Republican-held seat in the state House―a development that represents Gov. Ron DeSantis’ second electoral humiliation in the span of 24 hours.
Keen defeated his Republican rival, Osceola County School Board member Erika Booth, 51-49 in Tuesday’s special election for the 35th House District, a constituency in the Orlando suburbs that Joe Biden carried 52-47. The Democrat will succeed Republican Fred Hawkins, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed in June to serve as president of South Florida State College despite lacking any background in higher education.
“Republicans will hold an 84-36 supermajority in the state House,” writes Jeff Singer, with “a similarly lopsided edge in the state Senate.” Keen’s seat will be up for reelection in November, so he had best not get too comfortable.
Keen’s showing comes only a little over a year after DeSantis and other Republicans romped to victory in this district. According to Florida data analyst Matt Isbell, DeSantis carried the 35th District 56-43 in 2022, while GOP Sen. Marco Rubio took it by a 53-46 spread.
Both parties understood that Tuesday’s results could resonate far beyond the Florida House of Representatives, and they spent heavily to win here. Florida Politics wrote Tuesday that Booth had outraised Keen $323,000 to $121,000, but the official campaign committee of Florida House Democrats had outspent its GOP counterpart $541,000 to $207,000 through Jan. 11.
And the race may have been even more expensive than these figures suggest. Isbell estimates that Republicans altogether deployed $1.5 million, while Democrats put in $1.2 million, though he cautions that “so much money is hard to trace.”
That’s an insane amount in total spending for a state house seat where I’m from.
“Obviously, this is not the result we wanted- but I respect the will of the voters,” said Booth. “I congratulate Tom Keen on his win and a race well run.”
These days, that concession from a Republican deserves its own headline. Even if Booth ran on fighting “Sleepy Joe’s” “woke agenda” and on protecting our kids from indoctrination (which puzzlingly has something to do with immigration). She is also committed to election integrity, which during the Republican Iowa caucuses on Monday looked like popcorn buckets and grocery bags.
Keen ran a campaign on reproductive rights and the crisis in Florida property insurance.
WFTV-9 reports:
Digging into the numbers shows Keen overperformed with non-party affiliated voters, winning roughly 65% of the NPA vote, enough to overcome a raw vote lead in the race where Republicans cast some 900 more votes in the contest. Keen also overperformed in Orange County, where he beat Booth by 1,859 votes.
That 65% is the sort of result Democrats see in more urban counties. It’s flipped in “Trump country.”