Republican voters come to the light
To no one’s surprise, Donald “91 Counts” Trump handily defeated Gov. Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday. The surprise was results were closer than a late poll showing Trump polling ahead of Haley by 18 points among likely voters. The final spread was 11 points. But the Washington Post-Monmouth University poll was taken before Florida Gov, Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race. Haley may have picked up votes there. “Undeclared” voters are allowed to vote in the Republican primary.
Exit polls suggest tepid support for Haley. Aaron Blake notes, “Nearly 3 in 10 expressed some reservations about her, and 4 in 10 said their vote was mostly about dislike for the other candidates — or, more aptly, candidate.” Trump. It is significant “that so many voters who felt so meh about Haley turned out to register what amounted to protest votes.”
Watch that space this November. Trump has been a net plus in elections for Democrats ever since he took office. Even in 2022 when he had left office after fomenting a violent insurrection.
Haley herself made that point to supporters Tuesday night:
New Hampshire exit polls and results seem to confirm what Politico reported Tuesday: “There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for [Trump] in November if he becomes the nominee.”
“Being president doesn’t change who you are; it reveals who you are.” — Michelle Obama
An NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa voters showed “that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump,” Politico reports. That sentiment has carried over to New Hampshire:
“I can’t vote for Trump. He’s a crook. He’s too corrupt,” said Scott Simeone, 64, an independent voter from Amherst, who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. “I voted for him, and I didn’t realize he’s as corrupt as he is.”
[…]
“I liked him. But he just scares me now. Everybody that has ever worked for him is not any more,” said Lisa Tracy, of Salem. If it came down to Biden versus Trump, she said, “I would go with Biden.”
There are plenty of Trump cultists who will never stop believing Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen. But for other previous Trump voters, Trump’s presidency has revealed who he is. Better late….
This New Hampshire Republican (below) is not an Iowa Republican, but she’s seen Trump revealed. She’s done with him:
Politico found a young independent, 34, planning to vote for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), but she was a sidebar to Politico’s principal finding:
Curtis Thornbrugh, 81, an independent from Rindge, had voted for Barry Goldwater, Bob Dole, and both Bushes before casting his ballot for Obama twice and Biden in 2020 (he did not say how he voted in 2016). He was open to backing Haley in 2024 but couldn’t see himself supporting Trump.
“I can’t find anything good to say and I try,” he explained. “He’s dangerous and the people around him are, too.”
Forbes Farmer, 79, a fellow independent from Rindge, also went to view Haley in person at that event. He said he’d lean towards supporting her if she ran against Biden in November.
Could he back Trump should he prevail?
“No, never,” Farmer said. “I absolutely hate Trump.”
It is significant that the “come to the light” former Trump supporters Politico found all seem to be seniors. They form the reliable GOP voter base. Lose them and Republicans up and down the ballot lose in November.
John Harwood reacted to the Politico report with the prediction that “we’re in early stages of massive analytic shift from ‘Biden’s in big trouble’ to ‘Trump’s in big trouble.'”
How’s that for your daily dose of Hopium?