Playing the hand you are dealt
Jonathan Last throws water on the magical thinking about skittish Democrats replacing Joe Biden on their presidential ticket. (Really? Are we still talking about this?) Scary New York Times polls? How about scarier polls? Virtually all the also-mentions poll worse than Biden against Trump: Harris, Newsome, Whitmer and Shapiro.
Ten days ago already, Lawrence O’Donnell’s “the governing will not be televised” monologue refuted Ezra Klein’s speculation about Democrats replacing Biden. If that was not sufficient to dispel the notion that the DNC is going to rub a monkey’s paw and produce a younger presidential candidate, Last provides bullets on why it won’t (The Atlantic):
Let’s say that one of these not–Kamala Harris candidates is chosen at the Democratic National Convention in August. In the span of 10 weeks they would have to:
- Define themselves to the national audience while simultaneously resisting Trump’s attempts to define them.
- Build a national campaign structure and get-out-the-vote operation.
- Unify the Democratic Party.
- Fend off any surprises uncovered during their public (and at-scale) vetting.
- Earn credit in the minds of voters for the Biden economy.
- Distance themselves from unpopular Biden policies.
- Portray themselves as a credible commander in chief.
- Lay out a coherent governing vision.
- Persuade roughly 51 percent of the country to support them.
Democrats may have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but not since 2018. Unless the carnage abates in Gaza soon, there will exist the potential for protests in Chicago that (for those of a certain age) will evoke bad memories from 1968. Even the rowdies of The Big Tent Party will want to avoid that kind of bad press. All the more reason for DNC and FBI bloodhounds to alert on any ratfucking schemes the RNC or Russia may cook up to recreate that chaos on Democrats’ “behalf.”
Joe Biden is Joe Biden. He isn’t going to win a 10-point, realigning victory. But his path to reelection is clear: Focus like a laser on suburban and working-class white voters in a handful of swing states. Remind them that Trump is a chaos agent who wrecked the economy. Show them how good the economy is now. Make a couple of jokes about the antlers. And then bring these people home—because many of them already voted for him once.
Having a sure thing would certainly be nice, given the ongoing authoritarian threat we face. But there isn’t one. Joe Biden is the best deal democracy is going to get.
He’s already beaten Trump once. A brokered convention, Last warns, is unlikely to help Democrats win when “Biden has a 50–50 shot.”
Perhaps it’s my own magical thinking, but that tight polling feels off. We’ve seen them wrong too often. The media focus on Biden’s age is, at least in part, MAGA- and horse-race-driven. What’s not being polled enough is “Trump fatigue.” As my friend found, students may not be “excited to vote for the 80 year old president,” a question pollsters love to ask, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t planning to vote.
High card still wins when your opponent’s got nothin.’
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