I would not characterize Brian Beutler as a super optimistic fellow and certainly not one to blow smoke about the Democrats. But in today’s newsletter he shares a little bit of good news which, coming from him, is reassuring.
The short version is that over the past couple weeks President Biden has caught up with Donald Trump, as depicted in the Economist’s polling average above.
Now that’s not the whole story, or even an entirely good story, as I’ll detail momentarily. But deeper in the tea leaves, most recent developments are also pretty favorable to Biden and (thus) bad for Trump.
Consistent with the head-to-head polls, Biden’s approval ratings have ticked up (or, for copium abstainers, his disapproval rating has ticked down) while Trump, who has been more popular of late than in many years, has seen his numbers fall.
But to me, the best case for optimism lies outside the realm of survey data. It’s better for Biden to be slightly ahead than slightly behind, but what he needs more than anything is upside potential to open a large lead. And as mainstream-media fixation on his age has faded, his real long-run advantages have become clearer.
Since American elections are zero-sum, you can spot Biden’s upside potential in two buckets. Anything that’s good news for Biden is good news for Biden (QED); but anything that’s bad news for Trump is also good news for Biden.
There’s good news for Biden in both buckets.
-The economy is bullish and charging, with growth driven by productivity while inflation falls—a recipe for election-year interest-rate cuts, which should keep the economy humming and improve economic sentiment.
-Because this boom really is, to a large extent, a product of Biden’s economic policies, it feeds dream retail-politics coups like this: announcing an $8.5 billion grant to build an Intel microchip plant in Arizona.
-Relatedly, we’ve reached the point where “are you better off than you were four years ago” comparisons are insanely favorable to Biden. Congratulations, you’ve made it four years since Trump lied about and (thus) exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic.
-Biden and Democratic leaders have detached themselves from Bibi Netanyahu, even making clear they believe Israelis should oust him.
-He and the party are on sound financial footing.
The good news for Biden in Trump’s misfortune is much less theoretical.
-Trump’s small-dollar fundraising numbers suck.
-His desperation for cash is driving him into the arms of Republican billionaires who expect him to deliver (and thus not pretend to oppose) toxically unpopular policies.
-The money he and the RNC raise will cover Trump’s legal and campaign bills before the party as a whole gets a cut, driving dissension and deprivation through his already fractured party.Share Off Message
-Barring an act of unexpected mercy, he’s also about to either lose tons of marquee properties—a consequence of committing serial financial fraud—or receive some kind of politically toxic bailout.
-To the extent he’s campaigning at all, rather than simply trying to dodge accountability under the law, Trump’s campaigning on insurrection, and inviting known crooks back into his inner circle.
-Relatedly, a critical number of Republican and independent voters still don’t want Trump to be the GOP nominee, including the almost 20 percent of Arizona GOP primary voters who cast ballots for Nikki Haley, a candidate who suspended her campaign weeks ago.
-This is all before factoring in the electoral consequences Trump will face for raping E. Jean Carroll, overturning Roe v. Wade, losing the endorsements of his former vice president, former national security adviser, and former chief of staff among others, and possibly facing multiple felony convictions before election day.
There’s plenty to quibble with here. I personally wish Biden et al would simply assert that people are better off than they were four years ago instead of relying on wry implication. We in the media have become so focused on whether Trump will secure a bailout that we’ve lost sight of the outrageous fraud he actually committed—something voters deserve to know more about. But if a campaign is like a construction project, Biden’s got real brick and mortar, while Trump’s got a water-warped set of Jenga blocks.
He goes on to lay out some of the obstacles as well but I’ll let you subscribe to his great newsletter to see them. He reminds us that Biden has to win the popular vote by a big margin just to eke out a close win in the electoral college (once again putting the lie to the idea that our vaunted democracy is all that democratic.) And he warns about dirty tricks, Russian interference, Elon Musk and the whole array of corrupt actors who are aligned with Trump. It’s a lot. But around the political sphere the upside is what’s starting to get traction and I think it’s important to be aware of that too.