That you should take with the usual grain of salt
Scott Simon Rosenberg says, “with this new track there are now 12 polls taken since late February showing Biden leads (via 538)”:
- 48-45 Quinnipiac
- 44-43 Noble Predictive
- 44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)
- 47-45 FAU/Mainstreet
- 44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)
- 46-45 Public Policy Research
- 50-48 Ipsos/Reuters
- 45-44 Civiqs
- 47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation
- 51-49 Emerson
- 43-42 TIPP
As I have pointed out many times. none of this counts with the media until the big boys at the NY Times, WaPo, WSJ, ABC etc weigh in and we haven’t seen any polling from them in a month or so. In fact, it’s really the NYT that sets the agenda. But for the moment it does appear that Biden has started to edge up in the polls. Let’s just wait and see,
I’ve been watching the media for the last few days insist that abortion isn’t a top line issue for anyone according to the polls so the Democrats are really in trouble because the public believes the nation is suffering economically even though their own finances have improved tremendously. Having said that the news out of Florida could make a difference. Marc Caputo reports:
On Monday, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that a ballot initiative for a state constitutional amendment protecting access to the procedure can go to a vote this fall. The Republican Party of Florida opposes the measure, which will be on the same ballot as Trump.
That raises the question: Will Florida’s best-known Republican vote yes or no?
Trump isn’t saying.
A written statement from his campaign on Monday evening avoided taking a position on the Florida initiative: “President Trump supports preserving life but has also made clear that he supports states’ rights because he supports the voters’ right to make decisions for themselves.”
As one Trump adviser who has discussed the issue with the former president put it, “There’s no point weighing in, at least not now.”
Rick Scott is running for re-election and only won last time by 10,000 votes so maybe …
They also ruled that Desantis’ 6 week abortion ban can take effect immediately so until this constitutional issue is decided in November, Florida is going to have one of the most draconian laws on the books and Trump is going to be squeezed.
It’s hard to imagine that Florida is in play now but you never know. Despite the pundits’ dismissal of the issue as irrelevant because it isn’t showing the polls as the most important issue, it’s been pretty damned potent so far. And it does appear that Republicans are going to have to spend money on the state which, considering their anemic fundraising, they really don’t want to do.