Yes, it’s finally here and it confirms what all the other polls have been showing for the last month. Acknowledging that the NY Times Sienna poll is considered the gold standard among the cognoscenti, Dan Pfeiffer does a nice analysis of what it says about this moment in time:
The Democratic coalition is heading home. As the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher wrote in his analysis of the poll:
Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
Biden had a 43-point lead with Black voters in February, now that advantage is 53 points. Among Hispanic voters, Biden trailed by six in February. He now leads by nine. The President also increased his lead with voters over the age of 65 by three points. Based on this data, we can assume that the movement is largely among older voters.
These are also the voters expected to shift after an event like the State of the Union and an aggressive, well-funded television advertising campaign. Engaging older voters is simply easier in this fractured media environment. They consume more traditional news sources and still watch linear television and are therefore easier to reach with television ads. Younger voters have mostly cut the cord and watch TV through streaming services some of which are ad-free and some of the ones that offer an ad-tier don’t allow political ads.
The fact that Biden’s coalition is beginning to come home is very good news. It’s evidence that he can win and a validation of the strategy to date.
The Path Forward
I want to emphasize that, in a race between a sitting President and a former President where the electorate already has strongheld opinions about both candidates, the race will shift very slowly. Absent a significant exogenous event (like one of them being sentenced to prison), we are unlikely to see any real swings. This campaign will be a game of inches all the way to election day.
To give a sense of how subtle some of these shifts are, Biden and Trump’s favorable ratings didn’t change at all from February to now. People’s view of the economy didn’t improve either. It actually got slightly worse, but that is likely statistical noise given the margin of error. Based on this poll, there are few areas of priority for the folks across the anti-MAGA movement.
Focus on Voters of Color: Biden’s gains with Black and Hispanic voters are important progress, but there is more to do to get back to his 2020 margins. According to Pew Research’s Validated Voter study, Biden won Black voters 92-8 and Hispanic voters 59-38. So, there’s work to do. Biden simply cannot afford much erosion from these core parts of the Democratic coalition.
Young Voters Are a Weak Point: Per this poll, Biden continues to struggle with young voters. Biden actually lost ground among voters 18-29 years old since the February poll. Now, the polling of young voters has been all over the map this cycle, so I am a little skeptical that the President lost 11 points with this cohort in two months. However, the picture painted by this poll — and most of the other polls — is that younger voters — particularly younger voters of color — is the group with whom the President has the most work to do. Given their opinions on the President’s age (87% think Biden is too old to be effective) and how he is handling foreign conflicts (only 4% strongly approve), this group will take a lot of persuasion and is the one that requires the most investment of time and resources.
The Economy is Trump’s Secret Sauce: For all of the focus on Trump’s nationalist, anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies, there is a simple reason why he has a real shot at the White House despite his 91 felony indictments and failed violent insurrection. It’s the economy. The New York Times/Siena poll asked whether voters approved of “the way Donald Trump handled each of the following issues when he was president.” Nearly two-thirds of voters approved including 66% of 18-29 year olds. 74% of Hispanic voters, and 69% of Independents. Heck, even 27% of Democrats give Trump positive marks. Biden’s economic approval is 32-67. For a host of reasons, I am skeptical that the President can — or needs to — beat Trump on the economy, but he has to narrow the gap. The Biden campaign will begin that effort next week with a major tour of Pennsylvania focusing on the economy.
Much of the punditocracy has felt that Trump has a significant advantage and that it’s his race to lose. However, this poll—and the overall polling trends since the State of the Union—show that the 2024 election is a very close, very winnable race. We just have to do the work. And for all of the understandable hate toward the polls, it’s the polls that give us a roadmap for victory.
Yeah, I’m still not sure about these polls. But they do provide information that you have to take into account.
As for the punditry believing that it’s Trump’s race to lose — well, that’s true and it’s shameful. Jonathan Martin at Politico said it right upfront:
Just as the stock market’s record gains this year have been driven by anticipation of interest rate cuts, Donald Trump’s prospects have been propelled by an irrational exuberance in the political markets.
This week demonstrated how the conventional wisdom around Trump’s inevitability has solidified — and why those assumptions, much like the ones around rate cuts, are due for a correction.
I would hope so. Trump has never been more than a couple of points ahead and he’s a corrupt, criminal sociopath. Playing the horserace betting game with this one has done real harm. Biden’s going to have to work twice as hard and it was already tough enough.