Republicans deserve everything that’s coming to them
Democrats have plenty of experience with snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Israeli war on Hamas in Gaza is not helping President Biden. There are panicked missives in my in-box this morning about how him signing the TikTok bill if it passes will further erode his support among younger voters. Plus, as Dan Pfeiffer acknowledges, the Donald Trump campaign is much better run than it was in 2016 and 2020.
That said, Pfeiffer believes Biden has advantages the increasingly addled Trump wishes he had. For starters, incumbent advantage and non-stop offense:
1. The Incumbent Advantage
There’s a reason why incumbents win more often than not. Incumbency is an advantage. Of course, convincing the electorate to fire a president presents a challenge, but the ability to plan, raise money, and build campaign infrastructure while your opponent is campaigning for the nomination is a huge advantage. Because Trump’s primary opponents never landed a blow on him and he was able to avoid the diminishing campaign rituals, including debates, there was a sense that he negated Biden’s incumbent advantage. But that is not the case.
The Biden Campaign viewed the State of the Union as the starting gun. From the moment the President walked off the dais, the campaign has been fully engaged — dropping new ads, opening offices, and pushing its message aggressively in the battleground states.
They spent the last year quietly building an operation, doing plenty of research, and sketching out a plan to defeat Donald Trump.
2. Biden’s Offense
The Trump Campaign exited the GOP primary largely broke despite facing no real opposition. And his campaign has struggled to pivot to the general election. Since Nikki Haley dropped out, Trump has rarely campaigned, and avoids battleground states or even using media to reach voters. The campaign has no ads of consequence on the air and Trump is spending most of his time spinning records at Mar-a-Lago or attending legal proceedings related to his various criminal trials.
The Biden operation has been on non-stop offense. Since the State of the Union, the President remains omnipresent in the battleground states. His messaging is strategically designed to shore up the President’s coalition; and he is currently in the midst of a three-day tour of Pennsylvania to talk about the economy. Since the State of the Union, the President made major announcements on climate change, student loan debt cancellation, gun safety reform and prescription drug costs. All of these issues are critical to the struggling segments of his coalition.
The Biden Campaign continues to draw contrasts with Trump at every opportunity, launching new ads and videos on a near daily basis to define Trump and his agenda like this ad released immediately after the Arizona Supreme Court enacted a near-total ban on abortion in the state:
This week, President Biden is barnstorming Pennsylvania to drive and amplify an economic contrast message with this new ad.
Trump, on the other hand, has been on defense in recent weeks. He is scrambling to unwind his proposals to cut Social Security and repeal the Affordable Care Act. Trump is also utterly flummoxed by how to talk about abortion. One day he says to leave it to the states, and the next day he opposes Arizona’s state law banning abortion. For the next six to eight weeks, he is trapped in a Manhattan courtroom instead of campaigning in the states that will decide the election.
Based on the first month of the general election, Biden has a clear strategy to win and Trump is still figuring it out.
Yes, the country’s mood is a wild card. But if all politics is local (is that still true?), then the sideshow candidates Republicans are fielding in North Carolina may persuade voters to vote and vote D even if they are put off by national politics.
On Nov. 5, North Carolina will determine whether a slate of Republican candidates who believe that the 2020 election was stolen, who dismiss Donald Trump’s 88 felony charges and who are eager to be led by the most prodigiousliar in the history of the presidency can win in a battleground state.
Pope McCorkle, a Democratic consultant and professor at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy, argued in an email that the results of this year’s Republican primary elections on March 5 demonstrate that “the North Carolina G.O.P. is now a MAGA party. With the gubernatorial nomination of Mark Robinson, the N.C. G.O.P. is clearly in the running for the most MAGA party in the nation.”
For those who grew up watching the Tonight Show, “How MAGA are they?”
Robinson has pledged that “Christian patriots of this nation will own this nation and rule this nation,” and he’ll will stop only when his political enemies “run past me laying on the ground, choking on my own blood.” He’s racking up a greatest hits list that’s not to be believed.
On May 13, 2020, Michele Morrow, the Republican nominee for North Carolina superintendent of public schools, responded on X to a suggestion that Barack Obama be sent to the Guantánamo Bay detention camp on charges of treason. Morrow’s counterproposal?
I prefer a Pay Per View of him in front of the firing squad. I do not want to waste another dime on supporting his life. We could make some money back from televising his death.
In Morrow’s world, Obama would be unlikely to die alone. Her treason execution list, according to a report on CNN, includes Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, the former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, Representative Ilhan Omar, Hillary Clinton, Senator Chuck Schumer, Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates and President Biden.
I could go on about the N.C. G.O.P.’s entire council of state slate, but you get the idea. A canvasser here over the weekend encountered a woman completely put out with Joe Biden, so she pivoted to asking about those state races. The voter was shocked, shocked (and not in a Claude Rains way) to hear how bizarre the state Republican slate is. North Carolina Democrats have fielded a solidly non-insane set of diverse candidates.
McCorkle tells Edsall, “the N.C. G.O.P. is testing the outer limits of MAGAism.” I agree with Ezra Levin, Republicans deserve everything that’s coming to them.
These assholes deserve everything that's coming to them electorally. https://t.co/OaJemfQD3G
