Are they the new soccer moms and NASCAR dads?
Dan Pfeiffer looks at the latest (outlier) CNN poll that has the whole beltway gasping with excitement over the prospect that Biden is in the dirt with young people, Black and Hispanic voters. He noted that the polls shows that 25% of Trump voters are what he calls “conviction sensitive” voters who might be persuaded to abandon him if he’s convicted of a crime:
Even more interesting, the topline numbers are the characteristics of these conviction-sensitive voters. According to CNN:
They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are younger than 50 compared with 37% of those who would not reconsider), are less likely to be White (49% are people of color compared with 17% of those who would not reconsider), are more apt to report being Biden voters in 2020 (20% of them say they backed Biden in 2020 vs. 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are likelier to acknowledge that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency four years ago (63% vs. 22% among those who would not reconsider). They are also more apt to be political independents (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).
In other words, these are the exact voters who propelled Trump to his very narrow lead in the polling average. Younger voters, independents, Black and Latino voters are groups Trump struggled with in 2020 but is doing better with now.
You would think that all voters would be “conviction sensitive” but we live in a world in which corrupt, criminal politicians are revered because they’re very stable geniuses so being a felon who committed massive fraud, assaulted a woman and then defamed her, paid off a porn star, stole classified documents or tried to steal an election makes you “smart.”
Pfeiffer makes the case that at least some of these voters are persuadable and contends that this poll reveals “two broader truths about this election”:
First, Trump’s putative lead is fragile. He is propped up by people who don’t like him, disagree with him on most issues, and have a long history of voting for Democrats. Holding on to this coalition for the next six months would be a challenge for any candidate, let alone a megalomaniacal narcissist with little impulse control and 88 felony indictments.
Second, I am glad to know that some people would have some qualms about making a convicted felon president, but this is more than a conviction. These voters have some doubts about supporting Trump and are looking for an offramp. In other words, they are persuadable. Because everything seems so polarized and this election is a rematch, most assume there are no persuadable voters. That could not be further from the truth. If this poll is accurate, a historically large group of voters is willing to listen to our case.
It’s going to be a long hot summer and events may have more to do with this than anything. But you do have to wonder if the Young, Black and Hispanic voters will really be willing to vote for Trump once they get a good look at him again. It’s up to the Democrats, and all of us, to make sure they do.