The new NY Times’Sienna poll (gift link) has the entire political world besides themselves with excitement because it shows Trump winning in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. (The other swing states are essentially tied.)
Maybe it’s right and Biden is fucked in the sunbelt and the south. Other polls aren’t showing this but as we all know the only poll that seems to matter to the cognoscenti is this one and it therefore influences the narrative that Biden is toast. In reality, almost all the polls are showing the race tightening with Biden gaining ground.
Simon Rosenberg also keeps pointing out that their poll and some of the others continue to poll registered voters rather than likely voters (people who have voted in the past) which are showing, in these current snapshots, Biden winning narrowly. Maybe all these new voters are champing at the bit to come out and vote but I have to say I’d find that surprising. 2020 had a gigantic turnout, mostly because everyone was still in the throes of the pandemic and paying attention to politics. I’m not sure that’s true today.
Anyway, I stand by my standard disclaimer about early polling and the fact that whatever they say, it’s going to be trench warfare in the swing states. Granted, that freaks me out because it means that Trump could win which is a horrifying prospect. But it doesn’t mean he will win.