It’s only noon but I’m already drinking. I think I’ll just keep going. Maybe until November:
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
-55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
-49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
-49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
Many Americans put the blame on Biden for the state of the economy, with 58% of those polled saying the economy is worsening due to mismanagement from the presidential administration.
72% say that inflation is increasing but it’s actually fallen sharply and is now between 3 and 4% a year which is normal. They actually want deflation which would signal something very bad.
Despite previously suggesting the Fed could start lowering rates this year, Fed officials have recently indicated interest rates will remain elevated in the near future. While inflation has eased considerably since its peak in 2022, officials continue to say inflation remains high because it remains above the Fed’s target of 2% a year.
After a tumultuous ride of inflation and high interest rates, voters are uncertain about what’s next. Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in May.
So even though economic data, like GDP, implies strength in the economy, there’s a stubborn gap between the reality represented in that data – what economists use to gauge the economy’s health – and the emotional reality that underlies how Americans feel about the economy. In the poll, 55% think the economy is only getting worse.
Some have called the phenomenon a “vibecession”, a term first coined by the economics writer Kyla Scanlon to describe the widespread pessimism about the economy that defies statistics that show the economy is actually doing OK.
People said they didn’t believe that the economy is improving although many polls show that when asked about their own finances they say they are doing well. It’s just that everyone else is suffering. I wonder where they got that idea?
And then there’s this:
Something both Republicans and Democrats agree on: they don’t know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. In both September and May, a majority of respondents – more than 60% – indicated skepticism over economic news.
The economy continues to present a major challenge to Joe Biden in his re-election bid. Though he has tried to tout “Bidenomics”, or his domestic economy record, including his $1.2tn bipartisan infrastructure bill from 2022, 70% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats seem to think he’s making the economy worse.
40% of Democrats have no idea what they’re talking about either. Oy vey…
There’s a tiny glimmer of good news though:
Republican voters were slightly more optimistic about the lasting impacts of “Bidenomics” than they were in the September Harris poll. Four in 10 Republicans, an 11 percentage-point increase from September, indicated they believe Bidenomics will have a positive lasting impact, while 81% of Democrats said the same. And three-quarters of everyone polled said they support at least one of the key pillars of Bidenomics, which include investments in infrastructure, hi-tech electronics manufacturing, clean-energy facilities and more union jobs.
But don’t get too excited:
“What Americans are saying in this data is: ‘Economists may say things are getting better, but we’re not feeling it where I live,’” said John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll. “Unwinding four years of uncertainty takes time. Leaders have to understand this and bring the public along.”
Actually:
Has anyone talked to all the people who have insisted for years that if only Democrats would adopt more populist economic policies once all the jobs and goods delivered prosperity, voters would surge to the party. Did they not know about vibes???
Frankly, I understand the bad vibes but I don’t think it has anything to do with the economy. In 2020 there was great hope that Biden would win and that this MAGA freakshow would end and we’d go “back to normal.” But Trump refused to go away there has been no accountability for his criminal behavior. His cult following has been ginned up into a frenzy of hate and anger and everyone else is in despair or has checked out for their own sense of well being and the result is that there is an ugly, ugly mood in this country caused by Donald Trump. I think the only vocabulary many people have to express their dissatisfaction is to gripe about the economy, Americans’ common political language.
I have no idea what to do about this.
Cheers.