Uhm:
“The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.”
Read that again. Now read this:
“Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.”This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged. Trump’s dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon.”As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden.”
Good to know.
This has actually been known by many of the more optimistic analysts. The model includes all adults or registered voters, many of whom haven’t voted in the last three elections. As we get closer to the election they’ll start focusing on likely voters and that will give us a clearer picture.
By that time half the country will believe that Biden is buried in the polls so far that it’s impossible that Trump could lose. You know what that means …