Simon Rosenberg has a good one today. He shows that Biden has made some slight gains in the polls in the wake of Trump’s conviction although it’s still essentially tied. He also notes:
538 unveiled its 2024 forecasting model this morning and it gives Biden a 53% chance of winning the election. The key to how we win in this model is our strength in MI, PA, WI, the blue wall states which get us to 269 Electoral College votes, or check as I’ve been calling it.
He also notes that we have reports in the last week or so showing that the economy is rolling, crime is way, way down and (I would add, border crossings are also much lower in the last 6 months.)
Rosenberg concludes:
In the last few weeks we’ve gotten repeated confirmation of the success of the Biden Presidency – inflation is down, food prices are down, crime and murder rates are way down, gas prices are down, the flow to the border is down. We’ve had the strongest economic recovery of any advanced economy in the world, the best job market since the 1960s, the lowest uninsured rate in American history, the deficit is trillions less, the Dow has broken 40,000 and all three indices continue hover in record terrirtory, and domestic oil, gas and renewable production continue to be at all time highs leaving America more energy independent than it has been in decades. Consumer sentiment surged last month. The Wall Street Journal called the American economy the “envy of the world,” and the Economist just wrote about the unprecedented start up boom America is experiencing right now. Biden’s big three investment bills have dramatically accelerated the energy transition necessary to combat climate change and will be creating opportunities and jobs for our workers for decades to come.
Yes, I know. If things are so good why is it so close? It’s because our political culture is sick because of Trump and his MAGA movement which has turned right wing grievance into a profit making cult.
Yes, prices are higher than they were in 2019. So are interest rates. But people are also getting raises, they’re travelling all over the place, buying big consumer items and generally doing fine, which even they admit when asked. They are just disturbed about the state of the economy for everyone else, which gives away the game. This isn’t about individuals’ assessment of their material well-being. It’s about their spiritual and psychological well-being. Trump is making everyone, especially his own followers, unhappy.
But I’d still rather be us than them. Reality does eventually bite.