Voters are just clueless about reality
In a speech in Nevada on Sunday, Trump said that Venezuela “took all of their criminals, and they dumped them into a place called the United States of America.” Trump claimed that soon, America would be more dangerous than Venezuela “unless you make me President, in which case, we’ll be very safe.” A press release by Trump’s campaign on June 9 claimed that Biden had failed to reduce “high crime rates.”
Trump’s claims are being repeated by other Republicans running for office. “Since Joe Biden took office, crime has skyrocketed across our country,” Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-SC) posted on X. In a Facebook ad, Rick Becker, a Republican Congressional candidate in North Dakota, claims that “[v]iolent crime rates are through the roof.”
According to a recent poll by The Economist, 63% of American voters say crime is a very important issue. (Another 28% say it is a somewhat important issue.) Criticisms by Trump and other Republicans appear to be breaking through. Only 33% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of crime, and 52% disapprove.
But while Trump’s rhetoric on crime might be effective, it is not true.
New data released this week by the FBI reveals that both violent crime and property crime have dropped precipitously this year. The data, which is subject to revision, compares crime in the first quarter of 2024 with crime in the first quarter of 2023. It shows substantial drops in every category, including murder (-26.4%), rape (-25.7%), robbery (-17.8%), and property crime (-15.1%).
I’ve seen reports on cable today about this but I’d imagine it’s going to be a one day news cycle. But I’ve also noticed that on Next Door there is also a LOT less bitching about crime in our neighborhood. It was endless a year ago at this time along with relentless harping on the homeless. And to be honest, there was a lot of homelessness in our neighborhood. It’s much, much less today and the crime seems to have abated to normal levels at least. (This is a big city, after all.)
I don’t know if this changes the politics of all this. Lived reality doesn’t seem to have much effect on that. The country’s sour mood may not yet be fading. But actual crime certainly is and it will catch up to people sooner or later. Let’s just hope it’s not too late.