Following up on my post below I thought I’d post this excerpt from Dan Pfeiffer’s newletter. His analysis is similar to mine. He too thinks that a brokered convention is way too risky and that the “Biden endorses Harris with the full support of the Democratic establishment” scenario is the only alternative to the wounded Biden soldiering on. He writes:
There are two possible scenarios. The first is that Biden steps aside and endorses Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee, and the party coalesces around her. She would have to pick a Vice Presidential nominee and be ratified as the nominee by the delegates at the convention. That vote would be pro forma and drama-free. The race against Trump would start immediately. She would possibly get an opportunity to debate Trump at the scheduled debate in September.
The other scenario is the circus sideshow of a brokered convention which would be very risky.
Pfeiffer then discusses what Biden can do to right the ship if he decides to stay in:
- Acknowledge the Obvious: In the immediate aftermath of the debate, some Biden aides and supporters dismissed the concerns from the Democratic Party as if they were simply more examples of people underestimating President Biden. That’s a mistake. People can’t ignore what is obvious to everyone. It’s better to acknowledge it like President Biden did in his rally when he said:I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I know. I know how to tell the truth. I know how to do this job.People appreciate honesty.
- Embrace the Underdog Status: For months now, Democrats have pushed back on every poll that shows Trump leading. The President himself has argued that polling is broken because it’s so hard to get people on the phone (He may be right!). Yes, this is a close, winnable race, but it’s clear that Trump has the upper hand. We can debate how significant the advantage is, but all of us must act as if we are behind and have a hell of a lot of work to do to win.Biden’s campaign team is top-notch and they have been smart and aggressive. However, aside from his now ill-fated decision to seek out an early debate, Biden , himself, has largely been running as if he is in the lead. I know he is busy as President, but his campaign schedule is light (Trump’s is lighter). The Biden digital team does innovative things, but his communications strategy has been somewhat risk averse. Pehaps the debate shows why that’s the case. Regardless, the President needs to be everywhere at once. They should seek out tough interviews, constant appearances and opportunities for virality. The only way to clean up this mess is to show everyone a different Biden. That only happens with a change in approach.
- Make the Race Bigger than Biden v. Trump: We have limited data since the debate. However, in the FivethirtyEight/Ipsos poll, people who watched the debate thought Trump did better, but it didn’t move many votes. This dovetails with the anecdotal reports from various focus groups where voters were dismayed by Biden’s performance but didn’t choose Trump. Now, it’s worth noting that debate watchers are more likely to be partisans who made up their minds a long time ago and are therefore less likely to move based on one debate performance. What’s clear is that many voters are not excited about either of these candidates. Therefore, the best way to win is to make this election about more than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. We must raise the stakes. I recommend focusing on preserving freedom and defeating extremists who want to control every aspect of our lives. We need the votes of people who don’t love Biden and think he may be too old. Making their vote about something bigger than individual candidates is our best bet. Biden and Trump’s favorable ratings have been largely the same for years. We can’t convince most persuadable that Biden is great and Trump is even more terrible than we thought, but we can convince them that voting Biden is important to their lives and their country.
- Demand a Second Debate: This is going to sound insane. Just writing it makes me want to puke but Biden should be demanding a second or even a third debate. Trump probably won’t agree, but it’s better to look like someone who wants another shot than someone who is afraid of a repeat performance. Ratings for that debate would be through the roof. Biden would be better… and probably much better. Obama cleaned up his first debate disaster with two subsequent strong performances. Biden needs the same opportunity. It’s risky though. If he and his team do not think he can perform in another debate or a series of tough interviews and press conferences, those calling him to step aside are right.
Boy, that last one is a real gut check. I disagree that Trump will duck more debates. I think he’ll be thrilled to do them every week. Pfeiffer may be right that Biden will almost certainly do better but man is it a risk. He was that terrible.
I suspect it would be smart to get Harris out there a lot more. If he doesn’t make it through a second term, which I think is now on everyone’s mind, she’ll be the one we’re all voting for this November as much as Biden.