Is it Party ID uber alles? It’s the most important thing, that’s for sure. We are living in a tribal era and the two tribes really don’t like each other. So maybe it doesn’t really matter who is on the ticket. It certainly doesn’t matter to me, not at this point. I will vote for the Democrat against Trump, no matter who it is because Trump and his MAGA movement are fascist and they must be stopped.
As anyone who’s read me over the years knows, I don’t “love” politicians. I may like one or the other more or have a feeling about their symbolic value but as much as I might feel for them as human beings, as politicians I see them as instruments to achieve political goals. My number one goal right now is to beat Trump. And while I see Biden as having been a very good president, way beyond my expectations, I’m fine with him dropping out for someone else if that’s the best way to beat Trump. I’m also fine with keeping him on the ticket if the party ID factor remains the most important criteria because replacement carries its own risks. When you look at that chart above, if it’s true, it may not matter all that much who it is.
It’s very late in the cycle and it would be a cataclysmic upheaval which makes it unpredictable. One of the big risks is that the Democratic coalition will fracture under the pressure. It wouldn’t be the first time (see:1968.) Never assume that it won’t happen. Democrats love to fight each other much more than they like to fight the opposition. It’s just how they roll.
For reasons I have never understood there seems to be a real hostility toward Kamala Harris, almost at the level of Hillary Clinton loathing. She’s too ambitious, too arrogant, all the usual. That opinion seems to not just be rooted in the usual antipathy toward women in power but also her race which makes it even more fraught. But the fact is that factions in the Democratic base, particularly it’s most loyal constituency of Black women, will not take kindly to her being usurped.
And you can’t blame them. After all, she’s the current VP and had the ancient mariner shuffled off his mortal coil at any point in the last four years she would be the president today. We all knew that when we voted in 2020 and Biden’s age was a top concern then too. Any regrets now are probably too late. If Biden’s out I think Harris has to be in and that seems to bother the people who are calling for Biden to abdicate almost as much as Biden’s debate performance. None of them have anything close to a clear idea about who the alternative should be which just shows how risky this whole thing actually is.
The talk of a “brokered convention” with smoke filled rooms and floor fights is not only unrealistic it’s destructive. The main argument against MAGA is that they are chaos agents. So let’s stage a massive circus sideshow two months before the election proving that the Democrats are just as undisciplined. It would be a huge mistake.
I feel quite confident that If Biden drops out he will almost certainly endorse his VP and the rest of the establishment will go along. That’s fine with me. So if you want him gone you’d better make your peace with Harris or sign on for a new Trump term.
But I have no idea whether that’s going to happen. This is a very fluid situation. I just wish the pundits and operatives who are all wringing their hands in public would take a step back and let the dust settle a bit before having hysterical fits over this. It’s unnerving to watch and it’s making everything worse. If you want to know why a lot of people think Democrats are weak, acting like a bunch of panicked old ladies at the first sign of trouble is one of the reasons.
As for the NY Times editorial board calling for Biden to step down . Please. Last month Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies in Manhattan, their home town, and they didn’t call for him to step down. They need to shut their pie holes. They have no credibility at this point.
Like everyone else, I was shocked by Biden’s performance and am terrified that it will outweigh the fact that Trump is a psychopath. I’m just waiting to see how the public perceived it and whether or not it’s a deal breaker with those all important undecided voters in three swing states. The next week are two are going to be very rough.
Is it time to start drinking yet?