Democrats have the better turnout operation
Minutes before the Pennsylvania shooting on Saturday, Markos Moulitsas, the founder of Daily Kos, argued before a Netroots nation audience in Baltimore that the fundamentals of this presidential election still favor Democrats. Don’t panic.
Whatever the progressive left thought in 2020, Black voters in South Carolina “picked the least inspiring, most boring candidate” in the Democratic field. What we got for that choice was a win that November and, unexpectedly, “a great president.”
Many Democrats who should have second-guessed themselves in 2020 are failing to do it again in 2024. Every day we focus on Biden’s age is a day Donald Trump wins the news cycle. Meantime, Democrats have overperformed the polls in special elections. They’ve won abortion-related ballot initiatives everywhere while Trump underperformed in his primaries. Republicans tell pollsters they support Trump, Markos reminded, but then don’t show up for him. Voters proved polling favoring the right wing wrong in India, in Poland, and in France. You don’t have to be Simon Rosenberg to have Hopium.
Mike Lux reminds readers that Biden is in a dead heat with Trump in a slew of recent national polls compiled by Rosenberg:
- 50%-48% NPR/Marist
- 44%-42% GW/YouGov
- 47%-46% Split Ticket/Data For Progress
- 47%-46% Clarity
- 50%-50% Emerson College
- 46%-46% Washington Post (Harris leads Trump 49-47)
- 42%-43% Redfield & Wilton
- 42%-43% Bendixen and Amandi (Harris leads Trump)
- 41%-42% Big Village
- 42%-44% Morning Consult
- 40%-43% Economist/YouGov
And in the three most important battleground states, Biden is tied (MI), down 1 (WI), and down 2 (PA) in the public poll averages. Even in the four battleground states he is a little further behind in, the margins are barely outside the margin of error: 4 points in NV and AZ, 5 in GA, and 6 in NC.
People are calling Biden too old, but in the last few days he hosted and led a successful week long NATO summit, did an hour-long press conference, gave an inspiring speech at a Black church in Philly, and gave a passionate, fighting populist speech to a fired up crowd in Michigan.
If elections come down to turnout, the better turnout operation wins. Basic blocking and tackling. Trump has outsourced his to Turning Point Action, a “bonkers” decision, Bill Scher noted last month. Turning Point has a “nonexistent track record of successful electioneering and [a] reputation for financial mismanagement.” Bill Scher warned on Monday that the Turning Point decision could be disastrous:
Don’t take my word for it. The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta published an in-depth investigation of Trump’s campaign infrastructure and found other Republicans quietly fretting about the outsourcing plan:
[Trump’s political director James] Blair explained that allied organizations such as Turning Point Action, America First Works, and the Faith and Freedom Coalition would handle much of the right’s canvassing effort moving forward … (This isn’t the relief Republicans officials have been hoping for: Turning Point, for example, became a punch line among GOP strategists and donors after it promised to deliver Arizona— where its founder, Charlie Kirk, resides—in the 2022 midterms, only for Democrats to win every major statewide race. Kirk’s group is assuring dubious party officials and major donors that its operation has scaled up, but several told me they aren’t buying it.)
The fundamentals of the 2024 election remain favorable to Democrats. Gross Domestic Product is growing. Unemployment is low. Wages have been beating inflation for more than a year. American soldiers aren’t fighting and dying in an unpopular ground war. For over a century, incumbent parties in power have won American elections under these conditions.
Democrats have the better turnout operation. Biden is funding it well and fielding “a behemoth of a campaign.” (You should help out where you are.)
Trump is cocky and doubling down on MAGA. Days after the failed assassination attempt on Trump and weekend demands for lowering the rhetorical temperature, Republicans trotted out N.C. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson on the first night of the “unity” Republican national convention. Robinson recently shouted (and didn’t care who didn’t like it), “Some folks need killing!”
The MAGA GOP is a clown show, albeit a dangerous one. Will they take everything you hold dear while you sit on your hands?
On Monday, Judge Aileen Cannon in dismissing the Trump classified documents case on procedural grounds demonstrated once again that the MAGA agenda is to gut accountability to the rule of law for Republicans. You, of course, will experience the full weight in the Republic of Trump.
Yesterday too, Trump selected Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate despite Vance bringing nothing to the table electorally and being more radical than Trump on banning women’s reproductive freedoms. Trump wants a VP who will do what Mike Pence wouldn’t more than he wants to win.
This election will come down to who wants to win more. Do you?
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