A bunch of polls out today showing that a huge majority of Democrats want a different presidential candidate but the race is still within the margin of error. So, as I have said before, Democrats will walk over hot coals to vote for a fetid pile of garbage over Donald Trump;. The question remains how many of those independent swing voters and 3rd party types will do the same. The race is still stuck. This is the NBC poll:
In case you’re wondering whether Harris does better well, yes and no, depending:
[T]he poll showed Trump doing slightly better among white voters when matched up with Harris instead of Biden, leading her by 16 points among these voters, compared with his 14-point advantage here against Biden.
(These subgroups of voters, however, all have substantially larger margins of error than the poll’s overall margin of error, which is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.)
Among other demographics — by age, by gender, among Latino voters — there was very little difference between Biden or Harris.
But the biggest differences between Biden and Harris in the matchup against Trump go well beyond demographics.
Among the roughly quarter of Republican voters who say they are unsatisfied with Trump as the GOP’s nominee, Trump is ahead of Biden by 46 points, 63% to 17%.
When Trump’s opponent is Harris, however, more of these dissatisfied GOP voters flock to Trump. The Republican’s lead with that group grows to 57 points, 73% to 16%.
However…
Meanwhile, among the voters who prefer a third-party candidate in the poll’s multicandidate ballot test, Trump and Biden are virtually tied with these voters in a head-to-head matchup: Trump 32%, Biden 31%, with a plurality declining to make a two-way choice, saying they were undecided, would pick another candidate, or something else.
But when Harris is the choice against Trump, more of those respondents made a pick in the two-way ballot test. The vice president leads Trump among these “other” voters, 46% to 39%, suggesting a higher upside with voters considering a third-party candidate.
Anyone who says they know the answer on this is full of it. It’s simply not obvious by the data, history offers no clues and the “vibes” are very unreliable. I guess those of us watching it from afar just have to sit back and let it unfold.
Adam Schiff asked for Biden to step aside today. Unless this is a precursor to Biden dropping out on Trump’s big night and completely wrecking his narrative, this seems like unfortunate timing to me.
Anyway, I may be having an early cocktail or two tonight. I have to watch JD Vance speak anyway.