She’s more culturally aligned
The Daily Blast podcast with Greg Sargent introduces findings by the Harvard Youth Poll’s John Della Volpe:
An important new poll of young voters finds that Harris’ entry has dramatically shifted their preferences in her favor and against Trump. Which confirms a larger story: The Democratic-leaning constituencies who had drifted toward Trump now may be swinging to Harris, exposing a weakness in his previous support.
A new survey conducted for Won’t PAC Down in battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NH, NC, PA, WI) finds 18-29 year-old registered voters (that’s important; more later) favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 51-42, a 13-point shift from a previous poll showing support for Trump. The poll was conducted before the announcement of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as Democrats’ vice-presidential pick and the high-energy rallies that followed.
Della Volpe believes approval for Harris needs a margin somewhere in the mid-50s, as it was in the 2020 election among this cohort. A 20-point margin here in the battleground states helped bring Joe Biden victory in 2020.
Borrowing from Steve Jobs, Della Volpe says in politics some people don’t know what they want until we show it to them. These voters see what they like now.
These voters and the youngest among them see themselves more reflected in Harris than in Trump. They see someone willing to fight for their values. Culturally, her dancing and cooking and musical tastes more align with theirs, making them more open to her message. Biden lacked that cultural alignment. (His campaign’s attempt to use TikTok was cringeworthy.)
Della Volpe thinks the addition of Walz will only add to the Harris campaign’s image.
The youngest, males especially, now first-time voters, first encountered Trump as an antihero in middle school. They were not attending to his policy or ethics and took their cultural cues from online, right-wing echo chambers. But until now they did not see any alternative. Their actual values, Della Volpe found, align more with progressive Democrats. They simply did not see him reflected in the channels they frequent. They responded to a Biden : weak, Trump : strong dynamic. Now with Harris atop the Democratic ticket, she looks stronger, more confident, and more aligned with their values than Trump.
The poll finds Harris up not only in a head-to-head race against Trump but leading Trump 42-33 in a multi-candidate contest, a +10 point shift to Harris since early July.
I’d note that we are seeing in the Harris-Walz campaign the messaging framework laid out in July at the Netroots panel Amplify: Getting Louder to Win in 2024. Listen for “our freedoms, our families, our futures” referenced in speeches at Harris-Walz rallies. It’s a winner.
Now, the press goes all aflutter when younger voter turnout is up a few percentage points. The persistent problem is a few percent above what? Registration is one thing. Turnout is another. The greatest area for improving voter turnout is 45 and under (see below; your state similar). And the largest 45-and-under registration cohort is independent/unaffiliated. That’s why my personal effort here aims to boost turnout among 45-and-under unaffiliated voters Democrats tend to ignore. They tend to lean Democrat. Turning them out is the trick.
Chicken or egg? Are these lower-propensity voters not turning out like their voting independent neighbors because they are less-engaged? Or because Democrats are not engaging them?
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.