First they ignore you….
The Washington Post this morning offers a “narrative busting” poll, says Simon Rosenberg. But still within the margins of error or, as activists put it, within the margin of effort:
Among these key-state voters, Harris runs strongest in Georgia, where she has an advantage of six percentage points among registered voters and four points among likely voters, which is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Harris also is slightly stronger than Trump in the three most contested northern states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but by percentages within the margin of error.
The seventh battleground state, Nevada, is tied among likely voters though Harris is three points stronger than Trump among registered voters.
Naturally, the polling from North Carolina has me concerned. I’ve repeatedly made my pitch for turning out more neglected independents in heavily blue urban precincts where they underperform Democrats. But shaving GOP margins in rural areas is also part of a winning equation. Democrats’ state chair Anderson Clayton and friends at groups like Down Home North Carolina are on it. So is North Carolina’s Kate Barr. The Washington Post headline spelled out her mission: “She’s running with all she’s got for a seat she can’t win. That’s the point.“
@underthedesknews #northcarolina #genz @Anderson Clayton ♬ original sound – UnderTheDeskNews
Rural Organizing is also working to narrow rural margins. Kamala Harris hired executive director Matt Hildreth as her rural engagement director. Director of Organizing Shawn Sebastian writes at their substack:
In one of the biggest developments this week, the Harris/Walz campaign unveiled their Plan for Rural Communities. As the Associated Press reported on Tuesday, the plan “marks a concerted effort by the Democratic campaign to make a dent in the historically Trump-leaning voting bloc in the closing three weeks before Election Day. Trump carried rural voters by a nearly two-to-one margin in 2020, according to AP VoteCast. In the closely contested race, both Democrats and Republicans are reaching out beyond their historic bases in hopes of winning over a sliver of voters that could ultimately prove decisive.”
Governor Walz spoke about it at an event in Pennsylvania where he said, “When people think rural America, farm policy matters … crop insurance matters. Trade matters, tariffs matter. But you’re bigger than that. Your families, your health care matters, your education matters, your roads matter, your retirement matters, all those things matter.”
Rural America is more diverse than the MAGA stereotype, and shaving GOP margins there can be margins of victory both for local and statewide candidates. “We are bigger than just agriculture issues,” writes Sebastian.
It’s been our mission to make sure Democrats focus on turning out their small-town and rural bases — which do exist! — and to demonstrate their commitment to investing in rural America. Harris and Walz are showing rural voters that their concerns have been heard. This really is the plan we’ve been waiting for and we look forward to making it a reality.
They are also showing how life can improve when elected officials deal with real issues instead of just trying to divide us. The top of the ticket is committed and that’s great to see, but we are also seeing amazing engagement in rural downballot races. For too long, national Democrats have ignored state legislative races, but that’s where so much of the action is. Gerrymandering and voter suppression have been toxic in states.
Sebastian adds:
“Reverse coattails” or “closing the margins” or “lose less:” However it’s described, it’s an important strategy that we’ve been pushing for a long time.
It’s an electoral version of “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
So get out and vote, willya? Knock some doors. (Brian Beutler did yesterday for the first time!) Make come calls if MAGAland is not the America in which you care to live.