In the past five weeks, Trump’s operation has spent more than $29 million on TV ads criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris for supporting transgender surgeries for inmates and illegal immigrants in detention, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact. That makes the topic, by far, the biggest focal point when it comes to Trump’s ad spending—one of the best barometers of messaging priority there is. By contrast, the campaign has spent $5 million over that same time period on TV ads on the economy, making that topic their fifth-most emphasized.
The campaign’s elevation of transgender issues above the economy constitutes one of the biggest bets in presidential politics. The former rates as among the least important to voters according to public opinion polls; the latter their top concern. The trans-heavy focus also seems to conflict with months of insistence—from the Trump campaign to the pundit class—that the ex-president will win because of inflation and jobs.
Executing such a gambit at this late stage of the campaign represents a major roll of the dice: one that could either reset culture war politics for years to come in presidential races or, if Trump loses, go down as a major, even historic, tactical blunder.
I’m going to guess the latter. I really doubt that most people are going to be persuaded to vote for Trump because of this. The ads are so cruel and stupid it makes me want to throw my coffee cup at the screen:
Trump strategist and pollster John McLaughlin says that this is “asymmetrical political warfare” in that modern campaigns aren’t about policies, they’re about character.
He’s not wrong. But this kind of crude bullying and scapegoating of a very small and vulnerable minority says everything about the character of the people who are doing it. I suspect that even many of those people who are uncomfortable with transgender girls competing in sports aren’t moved by this cruel message. Sure, the racists and the xenophobes and homophobes like it, but they’re already voting for Trump. I can’t imagine this is persuading anyone who isn’t already a hateful MAGA voter.
By the way, out of tens of thousands of prisoners, there is a record of only 2 inmates ever having this surgery (as required under the law.)