JV Last at the Bulwark discusses the fact that lefty influencer/podcaster Cenk Uyger (with whom I once had a passing acquaintance back in the early blogger days) seems to be cozying up to right, specifically Elon Musk. I won’t attempt to question what his motives might be — it could be any number of things. But Last makes an observation with which I totally agree out of hard won experience:
You know about horseshoe theory, right? It’s the idea that the political spectrum is not a straight line but a U-shape, where the far left and far right end up nearly touching.
Usually when people talk about horseshoe theory, it’s in terms of policy preferences—how the policies of the far left and far right can start to overlap. But I think it’s driven much more by temperament.
If you are the kind of person who tends toward conspiracy theories, you will gravitate toward the far end of the horseshoe. The same is true for people who are driven by grievance.
And also for populists. If you disdain expertise and despise the opinions of “elites” who happen to know a lot more than you do about, say, military logistics or the actuarial side of force planning, then you will tend to make common cause with people like Elon Musk. Or Musk’s boss.
My advice is to keep this in mind when evaluating potential allies. Just because a person seems like they’re on one side at the moment doesn’t mean they’ll stay there. Personalities and character matter.
Once you understand that, it’s not all that hard to predict who will end up where on the horseshoe.
No, it is not. I have learned that the people who have this particular personality and temperament can be very appealing when they’re on your side. They’re often fighters who are brave enough to do and say things that others won’t. But in the end, you can almost always bet that their sense of grievance, attraction to conspiracy theories or hatred for elites will drive them to make common cause with the right. It’s happened over and over again.
Temperament matters more in politics than you think it should.