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Brace For Impacts

And Tequila?

Guacamole and tequila aren’t the only items set to get substantially more expensive once Donald Trump reenters the White House on Jan. 20.

The Washington Post’s Catherine Rampell schools a CNN panel on the coming impacts of Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. As the clip cuts off, a panelist asks, “What about tequila?”

 

 
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But surely, Mexico will pay for the tariffs the way it paid for Trump’s border wall? <snark>

Rampell filled in the tariff details on Bluesky:

Tfw you forget you’re the one who signed the USMCA (oops!)www.reuters.com/world/us/tru…

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T00:18:52.719Z

A breakdown of the goods we import from Mexico

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T01:18:42.770Z

If you voted out the incumbent because you thought grocery prices were too high, I got some bad news from you. For example, 90% of our avocados come from Mexico. Guac is REALLY gonna cost extrawww.cnbc.com/2024/08/17/w…

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T01:21:23.470Z

If you voted out the incumbent because you thought housing prices were too high, got more bad news from you. We import $105B in cement/lime/minerals and $28B in lumber/paper from Canada. We also *already* tariff that lumber to deathExpect construction costs to go through the roof (so to speak)

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T01:40:54.983Z

If you voted out the incumbent because you thought gas prices were too high, I have yet more bad news for you.The petroleum industry is well-integrated across North America. In the American Midwest, most refined petroleum products come from Canadabsky.app/profile/gasb…

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T01:43:45.287Z

I asked @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social for a back-of-the-envelope estimate for how much these tariffs would affect US gas prices. His response:

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T01:57:20.629Z

Patrick De Haan (@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social) has more for Rampell: “Also, I’d guesstimate the impact would be billions of dollars to U.S. motorists on a yearly basis. Perhaps $6-$10 billion per year.”

If you voted out the incumbent because you thought he’d help the US auto industry, I have even more bad news from you. As trade expert @kclausing.bsky.social observes, auto parts cross NA borders many times in the process of making a car/truck. This will wreak havoc on the US auto sector

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T02:04:43.740Z

Not to mention that we import a ton of other inputs/intermediate goods from Canada and Mexico (machinery, metals, wood) that then get used by US manufacturers to make higher-value products. So the downstream US firms that depend on those firms will be screwed too.

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T02:09:15.784Z

And all that is before the retaliatory tariffs take hold, Rampell warns.

Fun fact: “The average American eats about 20 pounds of fresh tomatoes per year, two-thirds of which now come from Mexico.”asmith.ucdavis.edu/news/mexican…

Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T02:42:56.859Z

Timothy Noah recalls perhaps the “pithiest summary of Donald Trump’s last presidency” came from comedian John Mulaney:

He compared it to a horse being set loose in a hospital. “No one knows what the horse is gonna do next,” Mulaney said, “least of all the horse. He’s never been in a hospital before!”

This one has. He’s just as clueless on his second visit. Perhaps more.

Noah writes, “Whatever practical knowledge Trump picked up in the first term is outweighed by the accelerating cognitive decline he displayed over the past year. He was a weak president before, and he may be an even weaker one this time.”

Chaos is coming.

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