This is the easiest explanation
I posted this yesterday as part of a longer post but I think it’s important to highlight it here. From Paul Krugman:
I don’t know how many people realize that the administration’s case for tariffs is completely incoherent, that it has not one but two major internal contradictions.
Here’s the story: Trumpers are claiming that tariffs
1. Won’t increase prices, because foreign producers will absorb the cost
2. Will cause a large shift in U.S. demand away from imports to domestic production
3. Will raise huge amounts of revenue
If you think about it for a minute, you realize that
(1) is inconsistent with (2): If prices of imports don’t rise, why would consumers switch to domestically produced goods?
At the same time, (2) is inconsistent with (3): If imports drop a lot, tariffs won’t raise a lot of money, because there won’t be much to tax.
Mostly, the argument won’t have to be made because prices are going to spike and people will see that. But the Trumpers will blame Biden and quite a few will believe it but I don’t think most people are going to buy that. Trump owns this.
I would love to see the media corner guys like Lutnick and Bessent on television with this. JD Vance too. It could even happen on Fox with one or two of their slightly less insane people on Fox Business. (I won’t hold my breath.) But the henchmen really should be forced to answer for it. It’s crazy and it’s dumb. And all but the most deluded know it.