Over the next few weeks we are going to see a congressional free-for-all in which the Republican congress negotiates with itself (they’re using the Reconciliation process which doesn’t require Democrats’ votes and they aren’t even trying to get any) over the budget.
The WSJ had a nice rundown of the various factions that are warring with each other, starting with the usual deficit cranks:
Deficit hard-liners
A group of so-called budget hawks have hinged their support of the president’s reconciliation bill on the idea that the tax cuts must be paired with significant spending cuts. These Republicans are willing to allow some deficit increases because they assume that economic growth will cover some of the costs. But they’ve indicated that—even though they’ve moved the process along so far—they aren’t automatic yes votes.
They want $2 trillion in cuts and that means serious pain for the American people at a time when Trumpk already screwed the pooch with DOGE and tariffs. Yeah. Great politics.
Medicaid defenders
One area likely to be targeted in the pursuit of steep spending cuts is Medicaid, a health insurance program that covers more than 70 million people who are low-income and is a big part of state budgets and the healthcare economy. There is a bloc of Republicans warning that deep reductions in coverage will hurt constituents and make GOP efforts to keep the House majority more difficult in 2026.
Even Josh Hawley is against this which could mean that the Senate can’t get it through either.
SALT caucus
A group of Republican lawmakers are vowing that their support for the Trump tax bill depends on raising the cap on state and local tax deductions, which was limited to $10,000 in 2017 as part of Trump’s tax law.
Most of these lawmakers hail from states that have higher costs of living and property taxes, like New York, New Jersey and California. Reps. Nick LaLota, Mike Lawler and Andrew Garbarino of New York, and New Jersey’s Jeff Van Drew and Tom Kean Jr. are among those pushing strongly to address the issue, with some threatening to withhold their support from the GOP package if the cap isn’t raised.
I’ll bet they cave … and lose their seats anyway,
Inflation Reduction Act protectors
Republicans whose states and districts received billions in funding that went towards clean energy projects through the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act are also warning party leaders against clawing back this funding and limiting tax credits that provide incentives. Such a clawback could be used to help offset the cost of other tax cuts, and Trump has repeatedly vowed to repeal the law.
There are quite a few Republicans who’ll be negatively affected by this. It will be up to Democrats to put the pressure on them with their constituents as this battle proceeds.
I really doubt they’re going to get these big cuts. My guess is that they’ll settle for cuts to culture war targets like NPR and Planed Parenthood and extend the tax cuts for another year and call it a victory, Their voters won’t know the difference and everyone else will be relieved it wasn’t worse. Meanwhile we’ll be dealing with something even more horrible that the administration is doing. At the end of the day it’s pretty clear that congressional Republicans have decided to keep their heads down and just try to get through this. They believe in nothing.