Economist Justin Wolfers:
Something has happened in the months since January that has led the World Bank to dramatically lower its economic growth forecasts. And whatever it is, it’s hurting the United States more than any other major economy. (China remains unscathed.)
Yeah.
Here’s the maybe (but don’t get your hops up) good news from G. Elliott Morris. He discussed how the “vibes” exist outside the real statistics and that people’s impression of the economy stick even after improvement. This is especially true of the “low information voters” whose perception of this always defaults to “throw the bums out” no matter who they are or what they stand for.
Two big points from these charts:
- Low-information voters are consistently more negative about the economy, regardless of which party is in power. In 2020 and 2024 the share of low-info voters that reported the economy was “doing better” was 10 points lower than among the public writ large.
- Their negativity was at Great Recession levels in 2024, despite improving economic fundamentals. That suggests impressions formed during inflation-heavy years in 2021–2022 never really faded.
The implication of these charts is two-fold. One is that low-info voters are influenced more by slow-moving economic conditions on the ground than late-breaking messages or headline economic statistics. They don’t follow budget details or policy briefings as closely as news junkies, but do notice when prices increase.
Another implication is that they are stubbornly opposed to the party in power. If they believe the system is rigged against them — and that politicians are looking out for the rich — then the incumbent party is at an inherent disadvantage compared to the opposition party.
And if that’s true, then Trump’s own economic policies may be hurting him in ways the GOP can’t meaningfully change before 2026.
I don’t know if any of that will hold up. But it does appear that he economy is anemic at best and likely to get worse. Morris’s theory is that even if the economy rallies before 2028, the GOP is unlikely to benefit with these voters. And apparently, they are the deciders now in this polarized population.
Sigh.