Trump is reportedly icing out Hegseth and Gabbard in favor of the generals and CIA director John Ratcliffe and dithering about joining the Israel-Iran conflict. According to the Guardian, this is the reason for his hesitancy:
Donald Trump has suggested to defense officials it would make sense for the US to launch strikes against Iran only if the so-called “bunker buster” bomb was guaranteed to destroy the critical uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
Trump was told that dropping the GBU-57s, a 13.6-tonne (30,000lb) bomb would effectively eliminate Fordow but he does not appear to be fully convinced, the people said, and has held off authorizing strikes as he also awaits the possibility that the threat of US involvement would lead Iran to talks.
The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried.
Trump is not considering using a tactical nuclear weapon on Fordow and the possibility was not briefed by defense secretary Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen Dan Caine in meetings in the White House situation room, two people familiar with the matter said.
But the defense officials who received the briefing were told that using conventional bombs, even as part of a wider strike package of several GBU-57s, would not penetrate deep enough underground and that it would only do enough damage to collapse tunnels and bury it under rubble.
Those in the briefing heard that completely destroying Fordow, which Israeli intelligence estimates to go down as far as 300ft (90 metres), would require the US to soften the ground with conventional bombs and then ultimately drop a tactical nuclear bomb from a B2 bomber to wipe out the entire facility, a scenario Trump is not considering.
Let’s hope TACO Trump stays true on this one. I actually think Trump is reluctant to be the first leader since WWII to drop a nuke. He’s always said that his genius MIT uncle told him that nukes are bad. On the other hand, in the first term he couldn’t understand why we couldn’t arm ourselves with thousands more of them and wanted to know if dropping one inside a hurricane could change its path so it’s clear he isn’t exactly a strategic thinker on this subject.
I don’t know if that’s the whole story anyway. Trump is also getting lots of blowback from certain sectors of the MAGA base although according to Politico, he’s not worried:
“He’s in his last term of his presidency,” the official said. “He may or may not see a window to do something that is something he’s always believed is right and is important for the world, and has the added benefit of being legacy-building. And this is a window. It’s never existed before. It will likely never exist again insofar as he can do anything about it. So while he has that window, he’s going to take a shot, even if it is not something that everybody agrees with.”
Nuclear fallout: It’s certainly true that attacking Iran is not something that everybody agrees with — a snap WaPo poll last night found 45 percent of Americans are against military strikes, vs. 25 percent in support. Most importantly for Trump, the issue continues to cleave his supporters down the middle, as this viral diatribe from Candace Owens neatly illustrates. It was striking, too, to see Theo Von — who famously interviewed Trump last year on what is the fourth-biggest podcast in the U.S., per Spotify — come out against military action yesterday. Here’s the clip
Trump remains unfazed, the senior official quoted above tells Dasha, and confident his supporters will back him to the hilt. “He’s always aware [of the criticism],” the person said. “He’ll bring people along … Some people are trying to shape the discourse a little bit, but he’s the primary shaper of discourse at the macro level, and perhaps the micro too.”
And there’s also this: “People say we’ve got to keep the coalition together,” the official added. “Well, if you’re Donald Trump, who, in your heart, knows you’re not running again — do you?
They go on to say that all he cares about is doing what’s right which is utter bullshit. All he cares about is money, vengeance, attention and being proven right. That last is what he’s wrestling with. These decisions have actual real world consequences that are very hard for him to spin if they go sideways. He can blame Biden or Netanyahu or Hillary Clinton all he wants but he knows very well that this is one that will rest on his shoulders and he is, at heart, a coward who doesn’t have a clue and has been dancing as fast as he can just to lurch from one decision after another hoping against hope that it doesn’t blow back on him. Even he is smart enough to know that getting into a war is a huge risk.
