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Month: June 2025

Equivocating Strongly, Very Strongly

As with everything else, Trump doesn’t know what to do. So he’s dithering as events take on a life of their own. I suspect that unless Israel decides its in its interest to just back off, in the end Trump will say what he said with the J6 rioters: “fuck it” — drop the bombs.

People who think of themselves as MAGA leaders are unhappy:

For the few months of this administration, they appeared to have gained remarkable sway. The America Firsters were deeply influential in staffing the new administration. And when it came to Iran, Trump seemed to be following their counsel. For the first time, he pursued talks with Iran over its nuclear program, instead of the “maximum pressure” sanctions approach of his first term.

Yet the hawks — strongly supportive of Israel, very hostile to Iran, and very skeptical any nuclear deal could be reached — remain very strong in the GOP. Every Republican senator except one (Rand Paul of Kentucky) signed a letter demanding Iran not be permitted any nuclear enrichment. Their belief is that Iran can never be “allowed” to go nuclear — that the US must stop it, by force if necessary.

When I interviewed Carlson earlier this month (before the Israeli strikes), he disputed this logic. He argued that since Pakistan already had nuclear weapons, “It’s not without precedent that another Islamic nation gets the bomb.” And he argued that a war to try and stop Iran from getting nukes would be “a true disaster” and “would not stay in Iran, of course.”

Carlson added ominously:

“Washington knew these attacks would happen,” Carlson added. “They aided Israel in carrying them out. Politicians purporting to be America First can’t now credibly turn around and say they had nothing to do with it.”

The rift in the MAGA coalition is pretty big although we’re not seeing it in the congressional delegation. This exchange between Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz shows the extent of the rift.

I don’t think Tucker really buys what he’s saying but he’s all in on the anti-war asshole image and he doesn’t have much choice.

Get some popcorn. This is going to be interesting.

If He Only Had A Brain

It’s become a cliche to point out that Donald Trump’s second term is more chaotic and volatile than his chaotic and volatile first term because there are no “guardrails” to stop him from making destructive decisions. By guardrails, most people generally mean serious, experienced, hands who can advise him of the more sensible and judicious course when making decisions and are perceptive enough about his psychology to understand how to handle him with misdirection and diversions to focus his attention on a safer path than he would choose on his own. It’s not the optimal way to run a presidential administration but when dealing with Donald Trump, a person of very limited understanding of the way the world actually works and very little desire or capability to learn about it, it’s probably the only way to ensure that the country doesn’t completely go off the rails.

This concern has now been borne out in living color in these first few months of Trump’s second term and it’s far worse than we ever imagined it would be. In every important issue area Trump’s impulsive, labile, character has been exposed in one way or another and it’s become clear that as much as people learned to manage him to keep him from doing his worst in his first term, everyone now knows that they can manipulate him for their own ends in the second. And that includes foreign adversaries and certain allies with their own axes to grind.

Consider one of Trump’s most egregious decisions at the very start of this term. On the campaign trail he had promised to pardon the January 6th insurrectionists but it was widely assumed that it would be a careful process that would exclude those who had committed the worst violence against the Capitol police or had perpetrated serious damage to property. The pardons would not go through the normal vetting by the Justice Department because none of the usual criteria had been met so the president himself was either going to have to decide individual cases or take the suggestions of his aides who had prepared a set of recommendations. But according to Axios, Trump couldn’t decide what to do so on day one he just said “F -k it: Release ’em all.” He might as well have just flipped a coin.

In the first term he had a White House Counsel who would have steered him away from making such a capricious decision but no one is there to do that. Perhaps more importantly, there were people around him heavily invested in the January 6th mythology of patriotic heroism who no doubt applauded what he did.

Or take for Trump’s big “liberation Day” tariff announcement which was received with a mix of shock and bemusement by the entire world resulting in an epic stock market crash. It was obvious from the moment he showed his amateurish chart showing tariffs for individual countries that there was no discernible formula (which should have been predicted by the fact that Trump has always erroneously based his obsession with tariffs on the idea that a trade deficit means that America is “losing.”)

In fact, he has no understanding of how tariffs work which is made crystal clear by his changing and contradicting explanation of his goals. On the one hand, he says that the high tariffs will make it possible to end the income tax. On the other hand he says they are designed to force foreign companies move their factories to the United States which would logically mean that imports would fail to bring in the expected revenue. And while he says they are a negotiating tool, he also says that he will unilaterally decide what is fair and will send countries a letter telling them what they will pay. And he continues to insist that foreign countries pay the tariffs and not American companies and consumers.

He believes all of these things separately and together. But mostly he believes that what he believes is automatically right, simply because he believes it. Having been unleashed in this second term and surrounded by sycophants and opportunists, Trump is acting on his uninformed assumptions to blow up the world economic system. And instead of talking him out of it, he has a group of economic courtiers who are so obsequious it makes your teeth hurt egging him on.

The Wall St. Traders who coined the TACO meme (Trump Always Chickens Out) have figured out how to take advantage of Trump’s inexplicable stop and start process by simply observing that his bullying tactics are bluffs and they have learned to anticipate his moves, making a lot of money in the process. It’s a sure bet that quite a few people around Trump have made a bundle doing exactly the same thing. He calls this “negotiating” — people with portfolios call it a tell. But when the economy really starts to falter over these tariffs nobody involved is going to be laughing. And Trump will have no idea how to fix it because he doesn’t understand it and won’t listen to anyone who puts the country’s well being ahead of their own interests.

Likewise, his immigration policies have been all over the place. One week his enforcer Stephen Miller is yelling at ICE supervisors that they have to start rounding up undocumented workers at Home Depot, sparking a massive protest and giving him the excuse he’s been looking for to bring troops into America’s big blue cities. The next week he’s announcing that the farmers and the hotel owners don’t like to see their long term undocumented employees being deported and instructs ICE to stop their efforts in those sectors. A few days later the administration quietly rescinds that order and Trump announces that he is sending tactical units to Chicago and New York to bring the hammer down on the immigrants and the officials in these “Democrat Power Centers” who are “sick” and “hate America.”

The point is that Trump doesn’t really know how to finesse this situation in a way that can satisfy all the stakeholders. So he lurches from one decision to another, dancing as fast as he can hoping that somehow it will all work out in the end. Meanwhile, Stephen Miller relentless pursues his crusade to purge America of as many immigrants as he can.

Perhaps the most glaring example of this phenomenon is in the realm of foreign policy. His bully boy posture against American allies is largely a performance which he thinks makes him look like a strongman. But the real strongmen see right through him. The man who claimed that he would end the Ukraine war with one phone call on the day after he was elected has been shown to be totally impotent when it comes to dealing with his alleged good buddy Vladimir Putin. After wailing for the past three years that all he wants is for “everyone to stop dying” in Ukraine , Trump has been reduced to weakly mewling that they may just have to “fight it out” pretty much washing his hands of the situation. Putin knows that Trump is a paper tiger so he’s doing exactly what he wants.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly taken the same lesson. He tried to persuade Trump to help them strike Iran but Trump dithered and stalled because he thought he could make one of his vaunted “deals,” so Netanyahu finally just went ahead and did it anyway. According to the NY Times, Trump was just left standing limply on the sidelines, not knowing how to respond until he watched Fox News celebrating the brilliance of the Israeli operation and decided to jump on the bandwagon. At this point we don’t know if he will agree to join the offensive operation as the Israelis want his to do but he’s enjoying the rush of taking credit for what they’ve done so far.

There are literally dozens of examples of how this is playing out in these first five months. From Miller to Putin to Netanyahu to every functionary in the White House, they have all figured out that Trump is even more clueless and mystified by the job of president than he was in his first term.His hand-picked “loyalists” and our adversaries alike have their own agendas and are becoming adept at using his ignorance and confusion for their own ends.

One thing we do know: none of this would be happening if Trump were president.

Salon

President Windsock

Move over, President Windrip

Who the hell is running the White House? Michael Cohen, former Donald Trump fixer, once described his boss as a micromanager. Every decision went across his desk. Yes, he’s still keeping his Sharpie handy, but does he even know what decisions he’s making? Or what his position is on matters of war and peace?

He’s unsure what his administration’s stance is on whether Iran is building nuclear weapons. Trump Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, says no. Trump says he doesn’t care what the intelligence community (or Gabbard, his hire) thinks. “I think they were very close to having one,” Trump told reporters yesterday on Air Force One.

The world knows how credible Trump’s statements are on any topic. It just doesn’t know what orifice he pulled them from.

How about the conduct of his national roundup of immigrants? Trump days ago bowed to pressure from industry groups to back off deportation actions against farmworkers and hopsitality staff. And then? (Washington Post):

Officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including its Homeland Security Investigations division, told agency leaders in a call Monday that agents must continue conducting immigration raids at agricultural businesses, hotels and restaurants, according to two people familiar with the call. The new instructions were shared in an 11 a.m. call to representatives from 30 field offices across the country.

ICE and HSI field office supervisors began learning about a likely reversal of the exemption policy Sunday after hearing from DHS leadership that the White House did not support it, according to one person with knowledge of the reversal.

“The White House did not support it”? raises eyebrows. Ben Mathis-Lilley questions at Slate, “Who runs the White House? I thought it was the president!”

He continues:

These are things that have happened only this week. In late May, the State Department announced that it would be revoking visas issued to Chinese students in the U.S. who have “connections to the Chinese Communist Party” or study in “critical fields.” But last Wednesday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “Chinese students using our colleges and universities” have “always been good with me.” What else might turn out to be American policy, or have been American policy already, unbeknownst to President Memento (2001, dir. Christopher Nolan) and/or the members of his Cabinet? It will be exciting to find out.

Who’s in charge of the government?

I’m already afraid to find out.

* * * * *

Have you fought dictatorship today?

The Resistance Lab
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water
Thirty lonely but beautiful actions
Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense

I Pledge Allegiance To Jesus

More “Appeal to Heaven”

Photo: SBA_Kelly on X

Another flag story might seem unimportant right now what with President Punchline, he of no “forever wars” fame, threatening Iran and leaving the G7 meeting to avoid further public humiliation. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), he of Merry Heavily Armed Christmas fame, has joined with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) to introduce a War Powers resolution in the House to require Donald Trump to get congressional approval before entering into a war (conflict? action?) or “unauthorized hostilities” with Iran. Not that Trump’s unitary executive inner circle would pay any heed.

But there is a related thread here.

Someone at the Kelly Loeffler-run Small Business Administration flew an “Appeal to Heaven” flag above the agency last week. The Revolutionary War flag is lately associated with Christian nationalism and was commonly displayed among the election deniers, rioters, and insurrectionists of January 6. The flag remained flying over the SBA for less than a day.

Readers may recall that the wife of Justice Samuel Alito flew the flag at one of their homes, as did Leonard Leo of the Federalist Society. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has displayed one outside his office. Johnson told the Associated Press in May last year that he was unaware the flag was associated with the “Stop the Steal” movement.

Wired reports:

“That the ‘Appeal to Heaven’ flag is being flown on a government building alongside the American flag should be shocking to anyone who doesn’t wish to live in a theocracy,” says Jon Lewis, a research fellow at the Program on Extremism at George Washington University. “The contemporary usage of the Appeal to Heaven flag is synonymous with Christian nationalism, full stop.”

“Those who carried the ‘Appeal to Heaven’ flag to the Capitol on January 6 did so because they truly believed they had the opportunity to inject Christian fundamentalism into the very foundation of our democracy, and the image of the same flag on the SBA will give them ample evidence they succeeded,” Lewis adds.

SBA staffers who spoke on condition of anonymity told Wired:

“It was pretty jarring to walk out of work and see that flag on the building, and it’s frustrating because it makes it seem like the agency as a whole supports what it has come to stand for, when that’s just not true,” they say. “We’re proud to do work that supports, or at least is supposed to support, all Americans. The decision to raise that flag isn’t one that reflects the views of everyone at SBA.”

“I think it would’ve concerned more people if they knew what [the flag] was associated with,” says a second SBA staffer, who also asked to remain anonymous, of the “Appeal to Heaven” flag.

It is the worldview newly associated with that flag that may have inspired the murder and wounding of Democratic lawmakers and their spouses in Minnesota over the weekend by suspect Vance Boelter. He is involved with “a charismatic Christian movement whose leaders speak of spiritual warfare, an army of God, and demon-possessed politicians.” Boelter texted his family after the shootings, “Dad went to war last night.”

The Atlantic reports:

To some degree, the roots of Boelter’s beliefs can be traced to a Bible college he attended in Dallas called Christ for the Nations Institute. A school official confirmed to me that Boelter graduated in 1990 with a diploma in practical theology.

Little known to outsiders, the college is a prominent training institution for charismatic Christians. It was co-founded in 1970 by a Pentecostal evangelist named James Gordon Lindsay, a disciple of the New Order of the Latter Rain, one of many revivalist movements that took hold around the country after World War II. Followers believed that an outpouring of the Holy Spirit was under way, raising up new apostles and prophets and a global End Times army to battle Satanic forces and establish God’s kingdom on Earth. Although Pentecostal churches at the time rejected Latter Rain ideas as unscriptural, the concepts lived on at Christ for the Nations, which has become a hub for the modern incarnation of the movement, known as the New Apostolic Reformation. NAR ideas have spread far and wide through megachurches, global networks of apostles and prophets, and a media ecosystem of online ministries, books, and podcasts, becoming a grassroots engine of the Christian Right.

Read: The ‘army of God’ comes out of the shadows

Many prominent NAR leaders have connections to the school. These include Dutch Sheets, a graduate who taught there around the time Boelter was a student, and who went on to become an influential apostle who used his YouTube platform to mobilize many of his hundreds of thousands of followers to the U.S. Capitol on January 6. More recently, Sheets suggested on his podcast that certain unnamed judges—“including Supreme Court justices,” he said—oppose God and “disrespect your word and ways,” and he prayed for God to “arise and scatter your enemies.” Cindy Jacobs, an influential prophet who is an adviser and frequent lecturer at the school, was also in D.C. on January 6, praying for rioters climbing the Capitol steps.

During his time at the school, Boelter would have been exposed to the beliefs that motivate these movement leaders. He would have been taught to see the world as a great spiritual battleground between God and Satan, and to consider himself a kind of spiritual warrior. He would have been told that actual demonic forces can take hold of culture, political leaders, and entire territories, and thwart God’s kingdom. He would have been exposed to versions of courses currently offered, such as one that explains how “the World is in an era of serious warfare” and how “the body of Christ must remember that Jesus has already won this war.” He may have heard the founder’s slogan that “every Christian should pray at least one violent prayer a day.”

Christ for the Nations Institute issued a statement on Saturday separating itself from its alumnus.

“We are absolutely aghast and horrified that a CFNI alumnus is the suspect. This is not who we are. This is not what we teach,” the statement reads. “CFNI unequivocally rejects, denounces, and condemns any and all forms of violence and extremism, be it politically, racially, religiously or otherwise motivated.”

Fred Clarkson of Political Research Associates told NPR that NAR figures have featured in prayer events organized by Speaker Johnson. He calls the NAR a definitionally antidemocratic movement intent on imposing Old Testament biblical governance on society.

“It’s just understood that it’s going to involve physical warfare,” Clarkson said.

The NAR mindset, Clarkson tells The Atlantic, makes it “just a matter of time before an individual or group of individuals take some kind of action against the enemies of God and the demons in their midst.”

(I once attended a high school graduation at a Christian academy. Ceremonies began with the Pledge of Allegiance. Following that was a pledge to the Christian flag. “The Christian flag?” a niece down the pew mouthed at me.)

Is this a good time to remind readers that Mike Huckabee, himself associated with the movement, is Trump’s ambassador to Israel?

The US ambassador to Israel told Donald Trump that God saved him from assassination so he could deal with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

“God spared you in Butler, PA, to be the most consequential president in a century – maybe ever,” Mike Huckabee wrote in a private text message published by the US president on social media. “You did not seek this moment. This moment sought YOU!”

What are Huckabee’s thoughts on Armageddon?

* * * * *

Have you fought dictatorship today?

The Resistance Lab
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water
Thirty lonely but beautiful actions
Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense

On The Lighter Side

“Right now, I really don’t like you… When are you going to examine what’s going on with Trump? This president has been pure chaos. There’s clearly something wrong with him. We’ll never get a straight answer on his medical exam. And yet you go after Biden with a vengeance.”

I think the smirk looks a little bit queasy, don’t you think?

Suited And (Jack) Booted

And masked!

Foreigners would be foolish to come here. And they know it:

Sales for the FIFA Club World Cup, a series of precursor games ahead of next year’s North American World Cup, were already lackluster when, last week, U.S. Customs and Border Protection bragged online about how its agents would be “suited and booted and ready to provide security for the first round of games.”

At about the same time, Immigration and Customs Enforcement told NBC Miami they’d also be at the games providing security, and told the outlet that all non-American citizens should carry proof of their legal status.

CBP spokesperson Alan Regalado told the Miami New Times in a statement that “lawful travelers have nothing to fear from these measures.”

Actually they do. People can see what they’re doing.

Tickets to the first match, featuring soccer legend Lionel Messi’s Miami CF vs. Egypt’s Al Ahly FC at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami hit, well, rock bottom.

According to prices tracked by The Athletic, tickets that sold for $349 and up after the matches were announced in December dropped to $69.15 ahead of the Saturday night game, with tens of thousands of tickets still unsold.

The sports outlet also found a deal marketed to local college students where five tickets could be had for $20, dropping the cost per ticket to just $4.

A whole lot of soccer fans in America are Latino and foreign born. Why would they attend something like this with ICE and CBP saying they are “suited and booted up” for the event?

CBP took down the statement but obviously word got around.

Foreigners are not safe in this country even if they are perfectly legal. Check this out:

An Australian man who attended Columbia University and was returning to the United States for a holiday says he was detained and questioned for 12 hours by American border officials about his involvement in pro-Palestine activity on campus, before being deported.

Alistair Kitchen, 33, flew to Los Angeles from Melbourne on Thursday, on the way to spend two weeks in New York, where he had lived for six years while working and studying.

He said that while he was in the immigration queue at Los Angeles International Airport, his name was announced via the intercom, and he was instructed to meet an officer at the back of the room.“What began was a two-hour interview followed by 10 more hours of detention before I was put on a plane back home to Australia,” he said.

The incident is one of several similar encounters to occur at the US border since Donald Trump returned to the US presidency, with the administration cracking down on what it deems antisemitism on campus, and cancelling visas or blocking entry for people alleged to have unwelcome views.

He had scrubbed his phone but they found the offending blog posts anyway which is alarming. They were written in Australia. So they put him on a Quantas flight and told the airline not to give him back his phone until they landed. (And they complied! )

No one is safe. There is no free speech in the USA right now, especially for foreigners but it’s very dicey for citizens too if you happen to come be stopped by customs coming back into the country or dealing with ICE and the border patrol. Stasi stuff.

Tin Soldiers And Trumpers Coming

I will just remind you:

They are liberating us — from our leadership.

This Would Never Have Happened If Trump Were President

According to the NY Times, Trump has been flummoxed over this Israel-Iran situation over the past few months, trying to talk Netanyahu out of his plan to strike Iran and couldn’t get it done. Netanyahu, like everyone else in the world, knows by now that Trump is a fool and that he can be easily manipulated into doing anything and then takes credit or casts blame depending on the outcome. He is completely clueless about national security and foreign policy and always has been. His “deal making” consists of saying one thing and doing another.

Anyway, here’s an excerpt and a gift link:

[O]ver the last several weeks, it became increasingly apparent to Trump administration officials that they might not be able to stop Mr. Netanyahu this time, according to interviews with key players in the administration’s deliberations over how to respond and others familiar with their thinking. At the same time, Mr. Trump was getting impatient with Iran over the slow pace of negotiations and beginning to conclude that the talks might go nowhere.

Contrary to Israeli claims, senior administration officials were unaware of any new intelligence showing that the Iranians were rushing to build a nuclear bomb — a move that would justify a pre-emptive strike. But seeing they would most likely not be able to deter Mr. Netanyahu and were no longer driving events, Mr. Trump’s advisers weighed alternatives.

At one end of the spectrum was sitting back and doing nothing and then deciding on next steps once it became clear how much Iran had been weakened by the attack. At the other end was joining Israel in the military assault, possibly to the point of forcing regime change in Iran.

Mr. Trump chose a middle course, offering Israel as-yet undisclosed support from the U.S. intelligence community to carry out its attack and then turning up the pressure on Tehran to give immediate concessions at the negotiating table or face continued military onslaught

Five days after Israel launched its attack, Mr. Trump’s posture continues to gyrate. The administration at first distanced itself from the strikes, then grew more publicly supportive as Israel’s initial military success became evident.

Now Mr. Trump is seriously considering sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets and to try to take out Iran’s deep-underground nuclear site at Fordo with 30,000-pound bombs — a step that would mark a stunning turnabout from his opposition just two months ago to any military action while there was still a chance of a diplomatic solution.

The story of what led up to the Israeli strike is one of two leaders in Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu who share a common goal — preventing Iran from getting a nuclear bomb — but who are wary of each other’s motives. They speak often in public about their strong political and personal bonds, and yet the relationship has long been beset by mistrust.

Interviews with two dozen officials in the United States, Israel and the Persian Gulf region show how Mr. Trump vacillated for months over how and whether to contain Mr. Netanyahu’s impulses as he confronted the first foreign policy crisis of his second term. It was a situation he faced with a relatively inexperienced circle of advisers handpicked for loyalty.

But he dos have Fox News to tell him what to do:

When he woke on Friday morning, his favorite TV channel, Fox News, was broadcasting wall-to-wall imagery of what it was portraying as Israel’s military genius. And Mr. Trump could not resist claiming some credit for himself.

In phone calls with reporters, Mr. Trump began hinting that he had played a bigger behind-the-scenes role in the war than people realized. Privately, he told some confidants that he was now leaning toward a more serious escalation: going along with Israel’s earlier request that the United States deliver powerful bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordo.

If only Trump were president none of this would be happening.

This is very bad. Cross your fingers that Trump’s luck holds out one more time.

New Polling

I’m not sure how much this matters anymore. We are so polarized that we can’t seem to break out of it, leaving the “low information voter” to be the decider which is not optimal/

Still, Trump isn’t popular and he’s getting less popular by the day. We just have to hope that this translates to a power shift in a year an half (#ohmygodwillwesurviveuntilthen?) And maybe we can see someone, anyone, in the GOP be willing to pull a John McCain to thwart the BigBrutalBill when it finally comes to a vote. (I honestly doubt it because the truth is that if McCain hadn’t been dealing with a terminal cancer diagnosis I doubt he would have done it either.)

Anyway, here’s where it stands today according to the Economist/YouGov poll: