Philip Bump has an interesting post today at his new blog (he’s left the Washington Post) regarding people’s perceptions of the murder rate in America’s cities. It turns out Republicans are deluded about that too although there are plenty of Democrats who have a skewed perspective as well.
Bump looks at the huge spike in murders that took place in the late 80s and early 90s and compares it to our current situation.
YouGov asked Americans this week if they thought the murder rate in American cities had risen or fallen since 1990. And most Americans, completely incorrectly, said that they thought murders had increased. A third thought the rate had increased a lot, which is the opposite of true!
Why? The partisan split on responses offers a hint: Republicans — who remain skeptical of cities, to put it generously — are much more likely to think that murder has increased. Which, again, it hasn’t.
Fascinatingly, younger Americans, people who didn’t live through the surge in crime that unfolded in the 1980s and early 1990s, are more likely to understand that murders have receded. Older Americans, who are also more likely to be Republicans, are more likely to be incorrect about the trend.
That figures.
In New York City, for example, the number of murders so far this year is down 85 percent relative to 1993. Last year, murders were down 83 percent relative to 1990. You have to ask yourself: When avatars of the right like Charlie Kirk proclaim that the city is intensely scary, is that a reflection of the city or of Charlie Kirk?