This fall is going to be lit
When Congress returns from its lengthy August recess, lawmakers on Capitol Hill will only have a few weeks to work something out before the government runs out of funding at midnight on Sept. 30.
And Senate Democrats will quickly have to make a decision.
In the upper chamber, legislation to fund the government is subject to the filibuster and requires 60 votes. That means Republican leadership will need a handful of Democratic votes and won’t be able to avert a government shutdown without the help of their colleagues across the aisle.
Meanwhile, the White House has spent much of 2025 freezing funds Congress has already appropriated, essentially robbing from the legislative branch its power of the purse. In July, congressional Republicans voted through a recissions package, signaling their approval of a small sliver of President Donald Trump’s funding freezes using a legislative process that required only 50 votes. No Democrats voted for the bill.
“Now you have a dynamic where Republicans in Congress can make cuts with 50 votes to things that had to be agreed to with 60 votes,” Devin O’Connor, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told TPM. “And that’s a really poisonous dynamic.”
That set of facts hangs over the budget process to come.
The Democrats are finally playing hardball (for the moment) it who knows where they will end up. Read the whole thing to get the gist of the dynamic but here’s just a little taste:
Senate Democrats can decide that they will strike a deal with Republicans, eventually giving them the votes they need to avoid a government shutdown, and cooperate with what would likely be a lengthy, bipartisan appropriations process. That is what might have happened under normal circumstances, in bygone eras when the executive branch hadn’t been holding up congressionally appropriated funds. A group of Democrats could also join Republicans to support a short- or long-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open.
Or Democrats could decide they want to stand up to the ongoing impoundment by the Trump administration and follow Warren’s urging, refusing to vote for legislation unless the White House guarantees that funds will be distributed as appropriated. Doing so could lead to a stalemate if the White House refuses to cooperate, putting the country on track for a government shutdown — which Republicans in Congress would surely attempt to blame on Democrats, despite their own unwillingness to stand up to Trump to protect Congress’ power of the purse.
Even if Democrats choose to cut a deal with Republicans, it will be very difficult to work out a bipartisan group of bills in the time frame senators will have following the August recess. The fiscal year ends on Sept. 30.
But more significantly, it is unclear whether Republican senators could get the White House to agree to any deal they might strike with Democrats — especially one that attempts to mandate an end to the administration’s lawless funding freezes. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought has already said he wants a “less bipartisan” appropriations process, part of his defense of the Trump administration’s strategy of impoundment and rescissions packages.
“You cannot make a deal with someone who doesn’t want to make a deal,” Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, told TPM. “It is not possible to force someone to make a deal with you.”
Even if Democrats could extract a deal from Senate Republicans, experts tell TPM, there are serious questions around whether Democrats can and should trust Republicans when it comes to any bipartisan deal they might make to fund the government.
“How can you actually make a deal if one side’s ready to do a partisan breaking of the deal through rescissions later,” Kogan said.
Read it all. This is complicated. But Dems could make a stand and do something really important. If they choose to. ..